Zachary Karabell is the President of RiverTwice Research (www.rivertwice.com), as well as Senior Advisor to Business for Social Responsibility. Until recently, he was portfolio manager, chief marketing officer and the chief economist for New York-based investment firm Fred Alger Management. He is the author of several books, including The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the 1948 Election; A Visionary Nation: Four Centuries of American Dreams and What Lies Ahead; Parting the Desert: The Creation of the Suez Canal; and a very short book about a very obscure US president, Chester Alan Arthur. Educated at Columbia, Oxford and Harvard, he writes for a variety of newspapers and magazines, including Newsweek, The Los Angeles Times, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, and The New York Times. He is a regular commentator on CNBC and an occasional ensemble member of the Fast Money crew. He has also appeared on CNN, the History Channel, and BookTV. His most recent book, Peace Be Upon You: The Story of Muslim, Christian, and Jewish Coexistence was published by Knopf in 2007. His next book, about how China and the United States have converged and what that means for the world, will be published by Simon & Schuster in the fall of 2009.

Blog Entries by Zachary Karabell

Nobody Knows Nothing

Posted December 15, 2008 | 12:13 PM (EST)


Everyday, my mailbox gets inundated with reports from strategists and economists. Two years ago, most were predicting a fairly rosy scenario for the global economy - and to be fair, so was I. Today, most are predicting a dire future of negative growth and economies mired in a deep and...

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The Rise of the Rest

27 Comments | Posted December 1, 2008 | 02:40 PM (EST)


The current economic crisis has claimed many victims, but what has changed most is the way that the United States is viewed, perhaps permanently. That isn't ideology; it isn't declinism; it's a fact. For all the talk in past year about the shifting balance of power globally, until now it...

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There's Only One End of the World... and This Isn't It

27 Comments | Posted November 21, 2008 | 11:02 AM (EST)


So here we are once again on the precipice, at least in terms of global stock markets and credit markets. Another bout of nail-biting panic is hardly unexpected, though it's always surprising when otherwise sane people veer sharply into hysteria. It's a good, albeit painful, reminder that the bonds of...

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The New World Economy

13 Comments | Posted November 17, 2008 | 12:41 PM (EST)


So the G20 met over the weekend, and if there was any doubt before, there should be none now: the financial balance of power is shifting. China, Brazil, even Japan can all claim more sound economies than the United States, and they collectively let it be known that they...

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Greenspan, Bubbles, and Responsibility

21 Comments | Posted October 24, 2008 | 12:01 PM (EST)


We are now in the season of scapegoats. The brays for justice and villains grow daily, and this week has seen a walk of shame as various participants in the credit debacle sit in front of Congress to be scolded and upbraided for their sins. Many of the goats today,...

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Fear Itself

5 Comments | Posted September 30, 2008 | 10:40 AM (EST)


As of today, the global financial system is gripped by panic. In the past two weeks since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the fear and chaos have accelerated dramatically, and the failure of Congress to pass its proposed $700 bailout bill on Monday unleashed a new wave of panic. That...

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Wall Street isn't Main Street

Posted September 15, 2008 | 11:46 AM (EST)


The purchase of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and the bankruptcy and collapse of Lehman Brothers are the latest -- albeit most dramatic - installments of the ongoing credit crisis that began last August 2007. The bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the fire-sale purchase...

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If "The Economy" Is So Bad, Why Isn't Obama Doing Better?

Posted September 2, 2008 | 12:24 PM (EST)


The near-miss of Gustav and the laughable (but effective) spin of the Republicans to foreswear politics and put on their "American hats" means that we can now resume watching our regularly scheduled show of politics. Obama's acceptance speech last week was long on pocketbook issues, and short on foreign policy,...

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Obama's Convention Danger

Posted August 26, 2008 | 09:27 AM (EST)


A rousing speech from Michelle Obama and we're off. With the conventions in full-bloom, we will be treated to two weeks of constant coverage. In fact, with 4,000 delegates at the Democratic Convention and 15,000 members of the media, the convention in Denver is as much a media event as...

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Polls Say It's the Economy -- Now What?

Posted August 21, 2008 | 12:33 PM (EST)


The recent polls showing a dead-heat race between Obama and McCain also indicate that economic issues are the single most important concern for voters, by far. And few people seem to feel that either candidate is doing much to address the underlying problems.

McCain has sidestepped the issue by attacking...

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Bush's Chickens Come Home to Roost

Posted August 12, 2008 | 02:02 PM (EST)


The Russian invasion of Georgia and the inability of the United States, NATO, the United Nations -- not to mention Georgia itself -- to do anything about it has cast into sharp relief one of the most disturbing consequences of recent American policy in the world. Having focused obsessively on...

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Jumping Off the Anti-China Bandwagon

Posted August 6, 2008 | 02:51 PM (EST)


A cursory glance at the coverage this week of the Beijing Olympics shows an increasing crescendo of negative commentary. That is evident everywhere from the Huffington Post to the mainstream media, and even sports journalists have been jumping on the anti-China bandwagon. The recent decision of the Chinese government to...

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How Many People are Unemployed? No One Knows

Posted August 1, 2008 | 03:37 PM (EST)


Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did what it does every month and released its employment figures. These showed that 51,000 people lost their jobs this month, and that the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.7%, which is a full percentage point higher than it was a year ago. Unsurprisingly,...

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It's the Economy, Stupid -- Part Deux

Posted July 29, 2008 | 12:37 AM (EST)


More than 75% of Americans now say that the economy is their number one concern heading into the general election in the fall. Those poll numbers are more than confirmed by consumer sentiment surveys which, despite a recent bounce care of the slight retreat of gas prices, have been at...

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The Arabs Are Coming, the Arabs Are Coming

Posted July 22, 2008 | 12:06 PM (EST)


This just in: General Electric and the government of Abu Dhabi announced an $8 billion joint venture for commercial finance in the Middle East. Through Abu Dhabi's investment arm Mubadala, the emirate will contribute $4 billion and GE the other $4 billion, growing to $40 billion in the coming years,...

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Government Bailouts: What's it All About?

Posted July 15, 2008 | 11:18 AM (EST)


Global stock markets are in summer free-fall; the stocks and bonds of financial institutions are sinking more quickly than the Titanic; and sentiment is veering into panic territory. We have, of course, been here before, not necessarily exactly here, but close enough. In 1990-1991, banks also went into a tailspin,...

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China Opens Up -- Sort Of

Posted July 11, 2008 | 01:30 AM (EST)


After months of uncertainty, the Chinese government finally relented and announced that it would allow camera crews and foreign reporters during the Olympics to roam around Beijing and do street shots. They were also given permission to do live feeds from the highly symbolic, picturesque, and because of the events...

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Made in China?

Posted August 16, 2007 | 12:16 PM (EST)


Right now, the markets are focused on two stories: the continuing unwinding of the sub-prime mess and the increasing number of recalls of products made in China. At this point, the roiling of the financial markets is the bigger of these two stories. However, the drum beat of negative press...

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Enough Already with "The Trouble with Islam"

Posted April 6, 2007 | 02:48 PM (EST)


In a recent Wall Street Journal editorial titled "The Trouble with Islam," the author regurgitated all of the familiar canards about the inherent backwardness of Islam: that the religion at core promotes violence toward unbelievers and toward women, that the Quran calls for death to the Jews, that all...

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The Greening of America?

Posted February 10, 2007 | 10:32 AM (EST)


When the zeitgeist shifts, it really shifts.

The beginning of 2007 saw one of the warmest Januaries on record, and instead of snow, we were treated to a flurry of articles, announcements, conferences, and high level public speeches that demanded action on the part of countries, individuals and companies...

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