By Latika Bourke
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has ceded the Coalition's lead in an opinion poll for the first time since the leadership coup, when he said Tony Abbott's poor performance in the same survey justified the change.
Newspoll, published by News Corp late on Monday night, had the Labor party leading the Coalition 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis. Mr Turnbull's personal ratings were down four points, while Labor leader Bill Shorten's by improved six points, which is outside the margin of error.
Labor's primary vote was up two points to 36 while the Coalition's was down two points to 41, compared to the previous fortnight's poll. Both changes are within the margin of error. Just one month ago the Coalition and Labor were neck-and-neck at 50-50.
Queensland backbench MP Ewen Jones told Fairfax Media he believed the budget would answer a lot of questions about the government's direction and said he did not believe claims Mr Shorten was "unelectable."
"The government needs a narrative badly": Malcolm Turnbull has fallen behind in the opinion polls.Credit: Andrew Meares
"For me, in a marginal seat, I have never agreed to the idea that Bill Shorten could not be elected," he said.
"Things will always tighten up in an election year.
"We got elected in 2013 to fix the budget. That requires leadership and uncomfortable discussions.
"I back Malcolm here. If we stand for something, keep pointing out the issues, the problems, the obstacles but continue to push forward our ideas on the transitioning economy we will win the election."
Mr Turnbull's personal ratings were down four points and Bill Shorten's improved six points.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Mr Jones said the Coalition had taken a predictable hit by highlighting state government spending.
One government MP who did not want to be named told Fairfax Media the ratings showed Mr Turnbull needed to abandon his dithering and "start doing something".
"The government needs a narrative badly," the MP confided.
"The only narrative going is that the PM is a charmer. That's not enough to convince the public to re-elect the government," the MP said.
However, the MP expressed hope that such a plan would be contained in the budget, which is due a week early on May 3, ahead of a possible double-dissolution election on July 2. The poor poll result comes against a backdrop of government indecision about its agenda and public tension between the Prime Minister and his Treasurer Scott Morrison.
The MP's view was echoed by former Liberal Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett, a prominent critic of Mr Turnbull, during an interview on Lateline on Monday.
"I think we've wasted six months in both developing the narrative and talking to the public about it," Mr Kennett told the ABC.
But he said he welcomed the return on the weekend of the Prime Minister and Treasurer's focus on cutting spending in the budget.
"I look forward to a budget that is going to dramatically reduce federal government spending," he said, citing the British Government's success in lowering the corporate tax rate after a period of austerity.
Newspoll cited as a reason for change
On the day he took the leadership from Mr Abbott, Mr Turnbull cited poor Newspoll results as one of the reasons for change.
"Now if we continue with Mr Abbott as Prime Minister, it is clear enough what will happen. He will cease to be Prime Minister and he will be succeeded by Mr Shorten," Mr Turnbull said at the time.
"The one thing that is clear about our current situation is the trajectory. We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row.
"It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr Abbott's leadership," Mr Turnbull said.
The poll of 1743 people was taken between Thursday and Sunday and in the same time-frame as the Prime Minister suffered a humiliating rejection of his radical plan to allow the states to raise their own income taxes.
Mr Turnbull has since said the state premiers' decision to scuttle his plan shows the nation must now live within its means, given the federal government does not want to raise the tax burden imposed on Australians either.
Andrews would challenge in right circumstances
The survey came on the same day the dumped cabinet minister Kevin Andrews declared he would be willing to challenge for the leadership in the right circumstances. Mr Andrews has since complained his comments were taken out of context.
He challenged Mr Turnbull for the leadership in Opposition in 2009 and came closer than people anticipated. However the contest was always considered a test-run to see if there was support for real change over the emissions trading scheme. Mr Abbott ended up replacing Mr Turnbull as leader a short time later.
Mr Andrews is not considered a credible leadership contender internally among conservatives or moderates.