Amidst unsettling reports of shaky consumer confidence, negative GDP numbers and still-stagnant employment south of the border, a glimmer of hope on the jobs front: help wanted ads are on the rise.
The Conference Board of Canada's survey of online job postings released on Friday found that help wanted ads across the country increased significantly in June and July, more than offsetting the declines in the previous two months.
The Help Wanted Index, which measures help wanted ads across 79 online job boards, rose eight points in July to 127.3 -- 27 points above December 2010 levels.
According to Pedro Antunes, the Conference Board's director of national and provincial forecast, it's a positive -- albeit unanticipated -- sign that actual employment numbers may also be headed for a boost.
"Honestly, we were surprised," says Antunes, who also spoke to The Huffington Post last week about the Conference Board's latest Index of Consumer Confidence, which declined in August for the fourth consecutive month on fears about the United States debt-ceiling crisis and European debt.
But unlike consumer confidence, which, as he explains is "an intangible...about how people about the economy," the Help Wanted Index is "a tangible number," which tracks upcoming employment "fairly well."
In the run-up to the recession, for instance, the Help Wanted Index fell "before employment did, as a pretty good leading indicator of the monthly employment numbers," he says. "This is why we track this number in particular -- because we feel it does give us a good sense of the next couple of months, whether we might see employment gains."
The index was up in all provinces in July. Alberta saw the biggest boost with an increase of more than 17 points; Quebec, meanwhile, experienced the most modest increase with a gain of 0.9 points.
There are, however a few caveats to the positive numbers. For one, the index doesn't account for the type of jobs being advertised, which means that it doesn't distinguish between short-term contract jobs and more coveted full-time permanent positions.
And though the July gains pushed the Help Wanted Index to an all-time high, they also reflect the ongoing shift away from newspaper ads.
"There's a structural change we think going on where there's more and more people and businesses using online job boards," says Antunes. "I don't know how much that might influence the numbers."
Yet he says there's still reason to optimistic about the latest results.
"It is a pretty good indicator of the demand for employment out there," he says. "We think that will will see some better job numbers in the [coming] months."