And what time does voting end?
The certainty of Clinton success is brought into question when we accept the fact that Clinton and Trump were virtually tied in polls towards the end of May. In what has been possibly the worst month a presumptive nominee could have, we see Trump still within five per cent of Clinton nationally, and still very competitive in key battleground states.
I noticed a man checking his iPhone ahead of me and reading aloud GOP candidates poll numbers for Trump, Cruz and Kasich to what appeared to be his father and mother. Was that a look of glee I spotted that Trump was number one?" I whispered to my friend same. "Oh no. Don't go there."
Thirty per cent of Canadian voters (over 5 million) have little to no partisan attachment. By comparison, only eight per cent of U.S. voters swing their party support, and thus the elections. A large non-partisan voting bloc explains the 2015 shift from orange to red, where in a span of three weeks, 1.4 million voters changed their mind from NDP to Liberal. This provides the perfect environment for strategic voting to swing elections. After four years of a majority Conservative government elected against the will of 61 per cent of Canadians, strategic voters became a major voice in this election.
The bad news is we perceive bullying to be more prolific than it was when we were young. The good news is we seem to be more aware and less tolerant of its destructive effects. We're split on how effectively our schools are dealing with the problem, to be sure. But the conversations are more open; the subject less beguiling.
What does it say about Canada that two of the most popular things in the country right now are the Quebec Charter of Values and Rob Ford? We're continuously told these things are, in fact, grossly unpopular. But if the polls are to be believed, both actually enjoy a larger, stabler base of loyalists than many of the people doing the loudest scolding.
In the modern world of reporting news before it happens, conservative bloggers are already writing Mitt Romney's political obituary. Conservatism in the USA will face an unprecedented crisis. It is no longer a proud animal; it is a fearful one.
Polling is a long haul game. Jitters of points inside margins of errors don't showcase who has different levels of support or who is the newest front runner in the media past time of political horse races.