$1,000 Friday - Wednesday's Oil Prediction Pays Off!

You are welcome!  

How many newsletters that you read give away free trading ideas that make $1,000 per contract in just 48 hours?  I'd say none but this one because I read A LOT of newsletters and, frankly, they mostly suck.  That's why I started Philstockworld in the first place - I subscribed to all these people who sucked and it occurred to me I could do a much better job - and here I am!  

We even went over this trade (still playable) in our Live Trading Webinar on Wednesday afternoon - it was the only trade we made (see replay here) as it was, by far, the best trade idea we could find.  In Monday's post we also gave away, for free, an SDS hedging idea that I'm sure will come in handy today.  If you'd like to have the PSW Report delivered live, to your mailbox, each day before the market opens - it's just $3 per day - I'm sure you do much dumber things for $99/month than miss out on great trading ideas that could actually make you money, right?  

If you are a more serious trader, you might like our Top Trade Alerts - which we reviewed last weekend with 16 winners out of 18 trade ideas in March and April - and that brought DOWN our perfect score from January and February (sorry).

Usually our morning posts are simply a macro overview of the markets, focusing on whatever I feel is important to talk about that day.  Recently, it's been all about the Brexit along with all the other Global nonsense that finally drove us to cash out many of our winners from our Long-Term Portfolio on Tuesday.  Since we did not reduce our hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio (or the Option Opportunity Portfolio) - that left us fairly bearish heading into the UK's June 23rd vote and we sure haven't seen many things we've wanted to add this week while we wait - so we amuse ourselves with some fun Futures trades.  

I have often said that you NEED to have that Futures tool in your tool belt and, also on Monday, we put up shorting targets for our indexes which, of course, are doing well today but it was only last Wednesday that I said to you, right in the morning post ($3): 

Being in cash doesn't mean you can't make any money.  Last Wednesday, for example, right in the morning post – I told you we were playing the July Natural Gas contracts (/NGN6) long at $2.14 and it's only June 1st and already /NGN6 has popped to $2.34 and natural gas contracts play $100 per penny per contract so +$2,000 per contract for the week is always nice to pick up by using some of your sideline margin.

Amazingly, Thursday's short play on oil (/CL) is also working as it's fallen from $50 back to $48.50 and that's good for gains of $1,500 per contract and we're done with oil here and, in fact, in this morning's chat, we flipped long on Gasoline (/RB) at the $1.60 line – but with very tight stops below (and we'll try again at $1.575 if $1.60 fails).  We're just playing for a technical bounce so quick profits at $1.61+ will be good for $420 per contract on this quick-moving (and dangerous) contract. 

Those Gasoline contracts pay $420 per penny, per contract!  We've had two weeks of fun playing our lines on that one and that's one of the reasons why we have gotten through almost 6 months of 2016 without having a weekly webinar in which we didn't make money on our Futures trades.  If the last 6 months of these trades (and you can go through the archives at our YouTube Channel) hasn't convinced you that Futures trading is a valuable skill to learn - I'm not going to bother trying to change your opinion.  

I will try to change your opinion if you are still heavily bullish and think it's going to be OK to ride out this dip - it's not!  The market is in a very dangerous position and we're heading into Q2 earnings and they are very likely to be worse than Q1 with worsening outlooks and then there's the Brexit vote and China and Japan and Brazil and Venezuela - Oh my!  

Fortunately, aside from George Soros, a lot of major analysts are now following my lead and warning investors about how dangerous the markets are becoming.  I know it sucks to be in cash and it seems boring but, if your cash is in Dollars, you can expect them to gain 6% over the next 30 days (now 94.10) and that's a pretty good rate of return (annualized 72%) - isn't it?  

If the Dollar is cheap and stocks are expensive - doesn't it make sense to trade in your expensive stocks for cheap Dollars?  More to the point - does it make sense not to?  As I said last week, we may be heading into one of those very rare situations where Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV) and the Dollar all move up at the same time because the FEAR of the Brexit is growing and growing and money has to find somewhere to go and, if not Euros and not stocks - then Yen, Dollars, Commodities and, of course, bonds are the answers.  

UNG, of course, is our Trade of the Year, taking second place to IBM, which is also doing quite well.  It's only just now getting back over our $6.50 entry but what a break-out it's having!  $9 is our goal for 2018 but, at this pace, we may be getting ahead of ourselves.  Presumably a stronger Dollar will keep Natural Gas prices in check but it's also shaping up to be a strong hurricane season - something we knew could be a bonus factor this year.  

On Oil, once this contract rollover period (6/22) is over, we're going to be long into the July 4th weekend (7/4) but we'll be happy to take a long poke if we get down to $47.50, regardless of when it happens (something else we discussed in detail in yesterday's Webinar).  On the whole, oil is right on the path we assumed it would be on back on June 1st, and we'll see if it heads down with the broad indexes today with 9 trading days left and 318M open orders at the NYMEX. 

That means that there's 300M FAKE! orders that have to be rolled to Aug (303), Sept (199) or Oct (90) by the 22nd so 33M barrels a day to roll is not too much pressure but we still need another blow-off move down to relieve some of the pressure.  A 300M barrel roll will put Aug/Sept/Oct at close to 900M FAKE!!! orders, so we'll have lots of shorting fun on the other side of the July 4th holiday - hopefully then can pump it back to $55 so we can make great money on the way back down!  

Remember - I can only tell you what is going to happen and how to make money by trading on the information - the rest is up to you!  

Have a great weekend,

- Phil