Derek Carr began the imminent quarterback frenzy by signing a 5 year extension with the Oakland Raiders worth an average yearly salary of $25 million, which includes $40 million guaranteed at signing and $70.2 million injury-only. Carr is now, based upon yearly salary, the highest paid player in NFL history. The contract helps to solidify Carr's hopes of being a “Raider 4 life”, as he once tweeted. It's safe to say he's got reason to be happy heading into training camp. I just hope he has some financial guidance surrounding him when the Raiders make the move to Las Vegas.
Set to be unrestricted free agents in 2018 are several more quarterbacks, most notably the young guns Jimmy Garoppolo and Teddy Bridgewater, the veterans Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Sam Bradford, and the legend himself, Drew Brees. Not to mention, the 2018 draft class seems to be strong at the quarterback position, adding another wrinkle to the mix. Exciting stuff. For now though, let's take a brief look at the situations of the 2018 UFA quarterbacks listed above and assess the influence, if any, of Derek Carr's big payday.
The Young Guns
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (left) walks out onto the field with backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (right) for Superbowl XLIX.
New England's Jimmy Garoppolo is 25 years old and entering his last contract year with the Patriots. A lot of buzz surrounded Garoppolo leading up to the draft, as rumors of a potential trade flooded the media, though the smoke cleared rather quickly. However Garoppolo should rest assured knowing he should soon cash out. A starter the first two weeks of 2016 before injuring his shoulder, he recorded 503 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions, along with a 68.3% completion percentage. Not too shabby. Yes, a small sample size, yet if it's all we have to grade him, he proved he can play. In a quarterback-starved league I believe Garoppolo has a chance to earn a healthy contract. He won't be near Carr's numbers, though he'll surely surpass Mike Glennon's generous 3 year $45 million dollar terms (including $18.5 million guaranteed). With a draft class as deep as it appears to be in 2018, I wouldn't expect a projected bottom-five team to go after him. They'll likely look to solve their quarterback problem by drafting and molding a young prospect. Though Big Ben and Carson Palmer both seriously contemplated retirement this offseason, perhaps Pittsburgh or Arizona make a run at Garoppolo. You have to consider also that due to their upper-tier rosters, they won't be in a position to draft an elite quarterback prospect in the 2018 draft. Currently their backups are Landry Jones and Drew Stanton, respectively.
Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater is in a bit of a different scenario. In a freak, non-contact accident in practice on August 30th, 2016, Bridgewater dislocated and tore multiple ligaments (including his ACL) in his left knee. Even more unfortunate, as odd as it sounds, this came on the verge of what many believed was going to be a breakout season for the 24 year old quarterback. Much speculation still surrounds his recovery progress, however recent reports suggest he has a great chance of reaching full health sometime during the 2017 season. This is critical. Minnesota declined Bridgewater's fifth year option, however if Bridgewater remains on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list for the entirety of the season, the Vikings retain him for the 2018 season. Clearly there are many implications here, the largest obviously being his health, so I won't say much here. I will say that if Bridgewater returns fully healthy as an unrestricted free agent next year, he should garner ample interest.
The Veterans
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is set to play the final year of his contract in 2017 earning $22 million. So far reports have been scarce regarding any progress on an extension, yet based off of the limited information available it seems both sides have mutual interest. Stafford has said he'd like to be a career Lion and GM Bob Quinn has said he'd like Stafford to a career guy in Detroit as their franchise quarterback. The Lions could opt to use the franchise tag on Stafford in 2018 though I'd expect they'd prefer to get a deal done sooner than later. Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford is in a bit of a different scenario. He's set to play out the 2017 season earning $18 million before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2018. Simply put, the Vikings have some decisions to make. To make a long story short, they have to choose between Bridgewater (2018 UFA), Bradford (2018 UFA) or the draft. If Bradford plays well would it be smart to re-sign the injury-prone 30 year old? Do the Vikings have enough confidence to believe that Bridgewater has made a full recovery (when/if the time comes)? Or should the Vikings turn to the quarterback-rich draft class of 2018 to find their guy? We'll have to wait and see, though I don't envision “Sammy Sleeves” in purple and gold next year.
Now for the real money maker: Kirk Cousins. It's easy to forget that this former fourth-round pick is about to rake in $44 million combined over the past two seasons. Last year he was hit with the franchise tag which guaranteed him close to $20 million. This year Washington elected to use the tag again which entitles Cousins to a 20 percent raise, making his guaranteed pay for this year $24 million. This is where Cousins' leverage comes in. He is set to become an UFA in 2018 again and if Washington wanted to tag him for a third straight season they'll owe him a whopping $34 million fully guaranteed, which is a 44 percent raise from his 2017 pay (as agreed to in the collective bargaining agreement). A quick note, if you're wondering why the percent raise increases each year, it is to prevent players from simply being tagged on a yearly basis, which takes away from job/contract security. Back to Cousins now, by simple math Cousins would be foolish to accept a deal containing guaranteed money a dollar short of $58 million (2017 tag + 2018 tag price). Striking a deal for anything less would result in Cousins leaving money on the table. If Washington is unable or unwilling to offer at least $58 million in guarantees, Cousins will likely elect to hit the market and exploit today’s quarterback-starved league. For perspective, the next highest in guaranteed money at signing is Giants quarterback Eli Manning, who in 2015 signed a deal guaranteeing $54 million at signing. Mind you, $58 million is the starting point for Cousins. Newly minted Derek Carr was only guaranteed $40 million at signing as well, so his deal has no real significance in Cousins’ negotiations. The Redskins failure to commit to Cousins in 2015 is coming back to bite them. Their low-ball $16 million average salary offer with $24 million guaranteed at the time simply wasn't worth it for a guy who knew he'd make $20 million guaranteed off the tag and become a UFA afterwards, where he could pull in even more dough. Even after a record-setting season where Cousins threw for over 4,000 yards, 29 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions, the Redskins were clearly not ready to commit. He followed that campaign up with another solid season in 2016 as well, landing him his second consecutive franchise tag. Either way in 2018, Cousins is going to be paid big money. By who? The Redskins still have a chance before the July 17th deadline. If not, likely the highest bidder in 2018 free agency. And whoever that may be better be ready to empty the piggy bank.