BALTIMORE -- The GOP retreat was a chance for House and Senate Republicans to get on the same page, to skip the Republican debate, see the movie "13 Hours," and to tell the press that they're, like, totally going to pass all 12 appropriations bills.
But past all the happy talk, beyond the George Will speech and the Larry Kudlow panel, the Republican retreat put leaders on the record. Members now have a standard by which to judge leadership, and leaders have something to live up to.
At this point in Paul Ryan's speakership, members are generally satisfied with the changes the Wisconsin Republican has made to congressional business as usual. But hanging over Ryan is the implicit threat that he could face a conservative mutiny.
"We just had a speaker of the House who had to step down because he lost support of the conference," one of the founders of the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.), told reporters on Friday. "So I don't think we need to do anything overt to make leadership aware that they'll be accountable."
The first step in that accountability is laying out what you want to do. And while GOP leaders stopped short of many specifics -- something they contend is instrumental to a new bottom-up approach of legislating -- the Baltimore conference was a significant moment in the story of what Republicans intend to do over the next year, even if they don't intend to actually vote on much of what they propose.Here are five takeaways from the Republican retreat:
Let's pass some spending bills, shall we?
The dominant theme of the GOP retreat was a commitment to doing all 12 spending bills -- or, at least, trying to do them. Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told members they would make a real attempt to fund government departments through individual spending measures. But leaders stopped short of an actual commitment, perhaps because they know the difficulty of actually getting it done; the last time the government was funded through all 12 appropriations bills was 1994.
As McConnell mentioned, passing appropriations bills in the Senate requires the cooperation of Democrats, and it's uncertain how willing Democrats will be to pass bills largely intended to restrict the Obama administration.
Democrats and Republicans have already agreed to a topline spending number, so finding agreement between the two sides may not be as tricky as previous years on that front. But with so many potential votes on controversial issues, members in both chambers -- and from both parties -- might want to avoid exposing members to difficult votes during an election year.
Filibustering Senate filibuster changes
There was no commitment to overhauling the Senate filibuster in Baltimore. In fact, the most that senators are discussing is a tweak to eliminate one of the two votes requiring the support of 60 senators. In short, an adjustment to the Senate filibuster won't change the fact that Republicans need Democratic votes to pass legislation.
As much as House Republicans clamor for something, even the tweak under consideration may not be palatable to Senate Republicans, who've seen the value of minority rights in the recent past. But it's clear there's growing frustration with the filibuster, and Baltimore was more evidence of that.
While House Republicans complain about the current rules, Senate Republicans report that they're looking at the changes. In congressional speak, that doesn't mean much.
The budget. The budget. The budget.
With the topline spending number set, Republicans plan to tackle a budget blueprint early in the new year. Ryan said the House will start on the budget at least a month earlier than usual, with a target date of early March for House adoption.
But already, conservatives are insisting the budget number Democrats and Republicans agreed to in October is too high, which ... good luck getting Democrats and the president to sign off on a new, lower number now.
In fact, if there's any movement on the budget, in this year or future years, it seems like the spending number will go up. McConnell told members on Thursday, according to one member present, that for every dollar Republicans add to defense spending, Democrats will get a dollar in domestic spending, which was the equation in recent deals.
While the House adopting a budget seems likely, the Senate is more in question. Senate Budget Chairman Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) still hasn't committed to a markup, and there are plenty of questions about whether the dedication is really there.
If the Senate doesn't act, it might be an early indication of just how unserious that promise to finalize 12 appropriations bills really is.
Bold agenda, maybe not-so-bold votes
Ryan has made a point to make the words "bold, pro-growth agenda" his new catchphrase in recent weeks, and he used the retreat as an opportunity to sketch out the five topics that are part of that agenda:
- National security -- The No. 1 issue on people's minds, according to a poll members saw in Baltimore, is national security, and Republicans want to present themselves as the party of military strength.
- The economy -- Republicans contend the economy isn't reaching its potential and that wages are stagnant.
- Health care -- Republicans still want to dismantle Obamacare and replace it with a more free-market approach.
- Poverty -- "Right now we have a safety-net that is designed to catch people falling into poverty, when what we really need is a trampoline that gets people out of poverty," Ryan said.
- "Restoring the Constitution" -- Ryan argued on Friday that President Barack Obama's executive actions had "damaged the people's trust."
Ryan has been clear that while he wants Republicans to present ideas to voters, he's not completely tied to the concept that Republicans actually have to vote on those ideas, particularly when floor time could be valuable during a busy legislative schedule.
Republicans left Baltimore without a commitment that they'll vote on an Obamacare replacement -- and for as many times they've voted to repeal the health care law, they've never voted on an alternative.
Still, Ryan has said members are going to take tough votes, and some bills might even fail on the floor.
When National Republican Congressional Committee Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.) was asked on Thursday if this retreat was more about putting out proposals than actually voting on those proposals, he said, "I don't think one precludes the other."
It remains to be seen how dedicated Republicans are to voting on their ideas.
A focus on criminal justice reform?
Legislation to reform harsh sentencing laws and alleviate struggling prisons overburdened by a growing inmate population was one of the few policy items Republican leaders cited as something they could get done in the next year. The overwhelming theme of the conference was unity, and proposing strong new ideas, but they didn't discuss what ideas those would be (at least not with the press). Passing criminal justice reform legislation through both chambers will be an uphill battle, certainly, but it's one of the few areas where Congress -- and the president -- could actually change something this year.