A SurveyUSA Bluegrass Poll, released Monday, gives Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes the advantage over Republican Mitch McConnell in the Kentucky Senate race for the first time since May. Grimes, the Kentucky secretary of state, leads the Senate minority leader by 46 percent to 44 percent.
The new poll differs from the handful of other nonpartisan surveys released since September that give McConnell a lead ranging from 4 to 8 points, but it lines up with Grimes' internal polling conducted by Mark Mellman, a pollster with a history of correctly calling long-shot races for Democrats in North Dakota and Nevada.
HuffPost Pollster's Senate model continues to show McConnell as the favorite, with a 4-point edge over Grimes and about a 63 percent chance of winning -- moderately better than a tossup.
SurveyUSA shows the change coming mostly among Democrats, who now break 72 percent for Grimes and 21 percent for McConnell. In an August poll, SurveyUSA found 67 percent supporting Grimes and 25 percent backing McConnell.
National Democrats recently surprised some political analysts by ramping up their investment in the Kentucky race, spending $1.4 million on an ad campaign hammering McConnell for his long tenure in Washington.
The SurveyUSA poll reached 632 people between Sept. 29 and Oct. 2, using automated phone calls and an online panel.