The world wept with joy on Tuesday night. Probably more such tears were shed than in all history. The reason was not that a Democrat had beaten a Republican or that the new man is young and has a gift for turning banality into rhetoric. But the emotion was due to Barack Obama being black.
I too wept, but I did so because the massive hope that is loaded onto Obama cannot be justified. The election of this man, mesmeric since I first heard of him in Illinois four years ago and read his memoir, may symbolise the advance of a once-oppressed group of Americans, and by proxy of non-whites the world over. But embracing someone for where he comes from rather than for what he may do has been the hubris of politics throughout history. No service is done to Obama by overstating his revolution as a Second Coming.
The most overheard media cliché is that "America will never be the same again." Yes it will, as it was when it last elected a Democrat president. Only if we break from the crypto-racist mindset that sees Obama as a black man first and all else far behind can we assess the odds on a successful presidency.
The election result reflected a normal pendulum swing to a convention Democrat, as is likely in time of unpopular war and economic distress. Nothing in George Bush's wretched term of office became him like the leaving of it: he made Obama's succession inevitable. The heroes of the campaign were the primary voters, who had put up Obama rather than Hillary Clinton to win the proffered palm.
Obama's 52 per cent of the vote was not a landslide. It was the distortions of an electoral college system that served (as in the House of Commons) to turn an unexceptional four point swing into an apparently overwhelming victory.
The race spin being put on the result is quite wrong. The percentage of blacks voting on Tuesday was up just two points, from 11 to 13. Within the white electorate, Obama actually increased the Democrat share. The reported prominence of "the economy" in the minds of voters, against "security" in 2004, gave a natural boost to the Democrat vote. Add the unpopularity of the Iraq war, McCain's reckless choice of running mate and Obama's brilliant campaign technique to get out his vote and there is reason enough for the winning Democrat margin.
Nor is Obama the Salvationist figure assumed by many abroad. Tuesday was no black insurgency. The victory speech contained not one reference to his racial background. Jesse Jackson hated Obama until last night. He was no son of slavery. Indeed the fascination of his memoir lies in the search by a member of an all-white family for an explanation of the colour of his skin. The new president is better seen as a classic American mix of freebooting immigrant and poor but educated mother, committed to a college education for her son. His story could be that of any president of Scots/Irish descent, rising through law school to emerge as the smoothly intellectual liberal derided by the Clintons during the campaign. Constant references to his colour obscure an assessment of his real strengths and possible weaknesses.
The one gain to Obama from the hysteria that has greeted his election is if he can convert it into something politically bankable. He will -- such is politics -- soon be campaigning for re-election. The Republicans may go through contortions of self-examination, but their party is hardly finished. Evangelical conservatism -- political and economic as well as religious -- is not dead. Opponents will be prowling Congress and the airwaves, waiting to pounce on each Obama setback.
Obama's popularity must be deployed early to give the conservative Washington machine, awash in interests and lobbies, the momentum it needs to "effect change". George Bush's adoption of Keynesian remedialism was welcome, but was not enough to save the economy (and himself) from recession. Obama must no longer pander to a grimly implacable army of trade unions, farmers, cartels, businesses and traders, all demanding satisfaction.
Americans have elected a leader not just for themselves but for a wide swathe of peoples round the world. They cried out for Obama and America granted them their wish. But the greater the expectation of this man, the more furious will be the backlash if he proves a disappointment.
There is a global detritus of American ineptitude and unpopularity to be cleared. The blundering mammoth that is America's global military projection must be curbed. Intelligence must return to foreign relations. Obama could indicate a start by closing Guantanamo Bay on day one. Will he?
Dare he stop torture, accept the Geneva Convention, get tough with Israel, change policy on Russia, make peace with Iran? He has promised to get out of Iraq and fast. But he must also unleash a ferocious pragmatism as "war creep" envelopes Afghanistan, and stop making puerile pledges to invade Pakistan and bomb border villages.
Afghanistan could yet be to Obama what Vietnam was to the last great civil rights champion in the White House, Lyndon Johnson. All Democrat presidents eager for re-election find it easiest to buy popularity and a macho image by acting belligerent abroad. Obama has yet to indicate that he is an exception to the rule.
The exhilaration of the past week has been palpable. I have lost count of the Americans who have said with relief, "I am tired with being hated everywhere I go. Suddenly I am loved." The moment is Rooseveltian. At a time of seeming ubiquitous misery, America not for the first time has pulled an iron from the fire. It has found a Messiah.
But I still prefer to see Obama not as a black man but as a talented leader of evident competence and sagacity who could use his charisma to bind people together and his intelligence to chart a way forward. These are the specific qualities the world needs now. We should place our faith in them and not in race or colour.