Edgar Allen Poe wrote, "Man's real life is happy, chiefly because he is ever expecting that it soon will be so." For Arizona Democrats, that couldn't be a more prescient statement. Last week, one of the state's leading Republican strategists warned that the GOP is in "acute jeopardy" of losing control of the State House, and maybe even the Senate, in an election that could be brutal for the party.
Nathan Sproul, a political consultant from Lincoln Strategy Group wrote in a four-page memo addressed to every GOP legislative candidate that "the situation is dire and getting worse by the day." Sproul further wrote, "The Democrats are well-funded, organized and hungry. It is every man and woman for himself or herself. Good luck. You're going to need it."
Emily DeRose, Communications Director of the Arizona Democratic Party, credits the momentum to the Democratic side as a focus on the major issues of the day: health care, education and, especially, the economy. She was quoted in the article as saying, "The environment is ripe for moderates and problem-solvers. This year, those people just happen to be on the Democratic side of the ticket."
I talked with DeRose, who pointed out that control of the legislature, at least in the House, has enjoyed a 44-year run. "No more," she said. "In the last number of years, we've watched the Republicans throw their hands up in the air and bury their heads in regards to Arizona's basic issues. It's just been a do-nothing legislature that's taken a pass on even the simple needs of the state. Arizonans are suffering economically, and our housing issues are tremendous."
How the state's leanings might translate into the national election with its hometown boy, John McCain, is another question. Arizona has produced three other viable Presidential candidates over the past five decades: Bruce Babbitt, Mo Udall and, most famously, Barry Goldwater, each of whom lost their bid. Arizona's Democrats hope John McCain will suffer the same fate.
Pointing me toward a new local Cronkite/Eight Poll conducted Sept. 25-28, Emily DeRose noted that Senator McCain now has only a mere seven-point lead, down from a ten-point lead a month earlier. For Arizona's "Original Maverick," that's not good news. With confidence dropping and the economy in a freefall, McCain may just hold his home state by the skin of his teeth.
In the center of Phoenix lies the famous Camelback Mountain, a 1,400 foot rocky uprising towering above the desert floor, which remarkably resembles the shape of a camel. The area around Camelback Mountain -- Scottsdale and Paradise Valley -- is populated with some of the most wealthy and influential people in the state. Many are staunch Republicans. Many are swallowing hard as they watch the economy flip and dive. Now, as the old adage goes, it would seem that the camel's nose has not only invaded the Republican tent in the midst of its stronghold, that darned camel is halfway inside the tent and ready to boldly crash the whole party!