With 2017 underway, it’s high time we fête the previous year’s movies with a bushel of prestigious awards. In other words, Oscar season is realer than ever. With the Golden Globes helping to ring in the new year on Sunday, Jan. 8, we have a fairly clear portrait of how the Hollywood derby is shaking out.
This is a crazy category. Mahershala Ali (”Moonlight”) appears to be the definitive pacesetter, but the precursors have thrown some curveballs, namely with the Golden Globes nominating Aaron Taylor-Johnson (”Nocturnal Animals”) and Simon Helberg (”Florence Foster Jenkins”) out of nowhere. But keep in mind the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has no membership overlap with the Academy, and we can only afford them so much clout. With that in mind, here are the Best Supporting Actor contenders, ranked according to the probability of their nomination.