Brady's Balls are Back in Business

The NFL indicated they will appeal the ruling, but significant deference is universally given to the District Court's findings, and the odds of disturbing Judge Berman's's ruling are too high to calculate. Brady's balls are back in business.
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As predicted, Brady prevailed in federal court when Judge Richard Berman nullified the four game-suspension architected by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell this past Thursday. What is perhaps most interesting about this development is the impact it had on the odds for their Week One opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as the betting futures. But before delving into those intriguing numbers, consider the position that Brady was in and how there was no other alternative except "to go for broke". With any other outcome, he's wearing a scarlet letter that will haunt him for the rest of his life, and the asterisk that would have been placed next to his portfolio of work would bear the social equivalence of Lance Armstrong's. Fittingly, when all the chips were on the table, Brady left the courtroom a major winner, and emanating from that signature smirk was a, "Better luck next time fellas." All the haters could do was gather around to whisper about the slippery and lucky nature of the future Hall of Famer.

No Choice: Even though Judge Berman encouraged a settlement among the parties, no agreement would have made sense for Brady or the NFL. This truly was a situation where an individual and an institutional reputation were on the line, and any sacrifice by either party was not an option. With an impasse such as this one, there could only be one winner with no prizes for second place. Any settlement by Brady would have included a public finding of guilt that undoubtedly would have lynched and marginalized his career. Even if the agreement included the language of "admits no wrongdoing" that we've come to expect in billion-dollar bank settlements, the story when the television cameras panned to Brady on the sidelines would have been a half-hearted and limp effort at explaining the intricacies of the agreement, and his absence would have been summed up like this: "Brady will sit out the first four games of the season because of the cheating scandal." There would be no qualifier because it's easier and politically correct to tout the system rather than the outcome.

Unmistakably Analogous: The parallels between Judge Berman's vacatur of the civil game suspension and a defendant standing trial and being acquitted cannot be discounted, nor will they. This is because of the compelling nature of the federal justice platform. The proceedings against Brady finally have an element of authenticity and objectivity that the biased and conclusory report authored by Teddy Wells wholly missed. Clearly, the take-away impression is that when the multi-billion dollar NFL corporation was forced to put on its case, it failed to carry its burden. There is no other reasonable conclusion, nor should one attempt to draw one.

Vegas's Reaction: As expected, news of Brady's return impacted the odds on his game against Pittsburgh. Brady's New England Patriot's have now become favorites over Pittsburgh, and their odds to repeat a championship moved sharply.

Expect This Next Week: Brady will suit up, take the field and dominate this game. Brady knows that millions will be watching and many will be thinking he beat the system. Similar to the motivation with the Super Bowl, this powerful emotion will be on full-display, and he and his Patriots will easily cover the spread.

The NFL indicated they will appeal the ruling, but significant deference is universally given to the District Court's findings, and the odds of disturbing Judge Berman's's ruling are too high to calculate. Brady's balls are back in business.

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