Breaking Down UFC 189: McGregor vs. Mendes

After six months of heated buildup between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor, it was an injured rib that ended up getting the better of the featherweight champion.
This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. If you need to flag this entry as abusive, send us an email.

After six months of heated buildup between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor, it was an injured rib that ended up getting the better of the featherweight champion.

Less than two weeks prior to the July 11, UFC 189 (10 P.M. EST, Pay Per View) main event, Aldo withdrew from the year's biggest fight card. In his stead steps Chad Mendes, who will face off against McGregor for the interim title.

Never before has a fighter created such a splash in mixed martial arts quite in the same way McGregor (17-2, 5-0 UFC) has since his arrival in the UFC in 2013. The Irishman has finished four of five opponents inside the Octagon, utilizing his unorthodox striking approach and power punches. And while McGregor looked to be perfectly suited to withstand Aldo's signature leg kicks and striking, he will face an entirely different set of challenges in Mendes.

A former two-time title contender who went the distance against Aldo at UFC 179 in the 2014 "Fight of the Year," Mendes (17-2, 8-2 UFC) is a powerhouse wrestler who has excelled on the feet of late, utilizing his quickness and hand speed.

McGregor carries with him an unbeatable aura, a thing of self-fulfilled prophecy. But his advantage on the feet, combined with a bigger and longer frame, will serve him well against Mendes, who will look to move inside and land the takedown. The best chances for Mendes will come from bullying his way into close distance.

Much has been made of McGregor's unproven wrestling defense; however, Mendes' advantage on the ground will eventually be his undoing, as McGregor will land strikes while backing away from a failed takedown attempt.

And after years of preaching his own legend about taking home the title, Conor McGregor will fulfill his destiny. Look for McGregor to earn the second round TKO.

Co-main event: Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald

Less than two years ago, Lawler and MacDonald met inside the very same arena at UFC 167. Lawler, who was in the midst of a career resurgence at the time, took a split nod over MacDonald, who, for the second time, heads in as the betting favorite.

In the years that have passed, Lawler (25-10 1 NC, 10-4 UFC) has continued his brilliance, claiming the welterweight title at UFC 181 in December 2014. MacDonald (18-2, 9-2 UFC) has since rebounded from the loss, winning three straight en route to his first title shot.

Lawler clearly has the experience edge in this bout, having fought three five-round bouts in 2014 alone. And his combination of speed, power, and aggression has propelled Lawler to the top of the ladder.

MacDonald, who trains out of Montreal's Tristar Gym under the tutelage of Firas Zihabi, utilizes his jab and technical striking to keep opponents backpedaling before moving in for the takedown. However, against Lawler, MacDonald's game plan will need a few twists and surprises, as the champion never shies away from rushing in and trading big punches.

And while both fighters will land often, there will be no stoppages; after five rounds, Robbie Lawler retains his title, taking a unanimous decision.

Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens

A striker-versus-grappler matchup in the featherweight division, this bout pits wrestling ace Bermudez against the hard hitting Stephens.

Coming off a loss to Ricardo Lamas at UFC 180, Bermudez (14-4, 7-2 UFC) has taken big leaps since his stint on the The Ultimate Fighter. Bermudez has phenomenal top control and takedown ability, and he's added a submission element to his grappling-based game.

Stephens (23-11, 10-10 UFC), who is riding back-to-back losses, is one of the division's biggest hitters, able to knock anyone out with one punch.

And while Stephens will do his best to land the knockout blow, Bermudez's wrestling will prove to be the deciding factor as he takes a decision.

Gunnar Nelson vs. Brandon Thatch

One of the welterweight's hottest rising prospects, Nelson (13-1-1, 4-1 UFC) is widely considered one of the finest Brazilian jiu jitsu practitioners in the UFC today.

Thatch (11-2, 2-1 UFC), who prefers to trade on the feet, was once touted as a rising star at 170 pounds, before a series of injuries and a February 2015 submission loss to Benson Henderson derailed a 10-fight finish streak.

What could potentially be another exciting bout between striker and grappler will quickly play into Nelson's favor. And while the pair will use the first round to feel each other out and gauge distance, Nelson's jiu jitsu will prove superior in the second frame, when he will sink in submission.

Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida

Entering his second run in the bantamweight division after briefly flirting with 125 pounds, Pickett (24-10, 4-5 UFC) is a durable veteran who has always been known for his heavy punches. Although recently, Pickett has had difficulty finding a home for his hands, looking tentative in his last two outings.

Almeida (18-0, 2-0 UFC), a hot prospect with 14 knockouts to his name, is a well-rounded fighter with finishing ability anywhere the contest goes.

And while Pickett is badly in need of a win, having lost his last two, this will not be his night, as Almeida will wear him down before landing the knockout punch in the third round.

Best of the Undercard: Matt Brown vs. Tim Means

On any other night, this matchup between Brown and Means, a likely candidate for Fight of the Night, would sit higher up on the fight card. But on a stacked UFC 189 card, this pair of go-for-broke strikers will headline the prelim portion (8 P.M. EST, FOX Sports 1).

Brown (19-13, 12-7 UFC), who first gained notoriety as a cast member on The Ultimate Fighter, is the quintessential technical brawler, a fighter who comes forward and exchanges with precision, often landing the knockout. And after stringing together an impressive seven-fight win streak, Brown has rattled off back-to-back losses, most recently at UFC 185.

Means (24-6-1, 6-3 UFC), who has won four straight inside the Octagon, including a Performance of the Night winning knockout of Dhiego Lima at UFC 184, brings a very similar skill set into the fight as Brown. He trades crisp punches in the clinch, with sharp, cutting elbows and knees.

This bout quickly becomes a torrid affair, with both fighters trading and landing strikes.

And after three rounds of wild exchanges, look for Brown to emerge victorious, taking a decision.

Popular in the Community

Close

What's Hot