Ted Cruz is probably too conservative to win enough of the remaining primary contests. A new survey ranks the nation's most and least popular senators. And some Democrats are growing less fond of Obamacare. This is HuffPollster for Thursday, April 28, 2016.
TED CRUZ PICKS A RELATIVELY UNPOPULAR RUNNING MATE - HuffPollster: "Among the many confusing things about Republican hopeful Ted Cruz’s decision to announce Carly Fiorina as his running mate on Wednesday is this: She’s simply not that popular. There’s not much recent polling on Fiorina, who bowed out of the GOP race in February. But with the exception of a brief spike in popularity last fall, she made little impact on voters, peaking at less than 8 percent nationally before falling to just above the 2 percent mark. A late January YouGov/Economist survey found that 53 percent of Republicans viewed Fiorina favorably and 34 percent viewed her unfavorably, for a net rating of +19. That’s decent, but lower than GOP voters’ opinions of Cruz and fellow candidates Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump…. As of February, her average rating among all Americans was a net -18, making her nearly, though not quite, as disliked as Cruz himself, who stands at -23." [HuffPost]
CRUZ IS PROBABLY TOO CONSERVATIVE TO STOP TRUMP - Harry Enten: "The moderate/liberal wing of the Republican Party simply hasn’t taken to Cruz’s campaign….In the 25 states that have voted so far and have exit or entrance poll data, Cruz has won an average of just 13 percent of voters who identify as either moderate or liberal. That is terrible. Leave Donald Trump aside for a second; Cruz’s other main rivals, first Marco Rubio and then John Kasich, have done much better with those groups. Cruz has run 26 percentage points behind Rubio/Kasich’s share of the moderate/liberal vote in an average of these 25 states. Even in his home state of Texas, Cruz trailed in this bloc by 5 percentage points. Only in Wisconsin was Cruz able to get a higher percentage of the moderate/liberal vote. Cruz likely needs to repeat his Wisconsin performance in future states, most notably Indiana next week, to have a shot at denying Trump the nomination." [538]
TRUMP'S CHANCES RISE IN PREDICTION MARKETS - David Rothschild: "Trump surged [Tuesday] night from 75 percent likelihood to win the nomination to 83 percent this [Wednesday] morning. Most of this increase came at the expensive of Ted Cruz, because he is the only one left to give! More technically, Trump is now at 66 percent likely to reach the magic number of 1,237 pledged delegates. But, he is 79 percent likely to win the on the first ballot. The markets have been clear about this for months now; Trump does not need 1,237 pledged delegates to win. He needs closer to 1,200 pledged delegates, depending on how the unbound delegates are counted...Beyond Pennsylvania there are going to be over 100 completely unbound delegates, some of whom will vote for Trump in the first ballot. At this point, should he somehow lose the first ballot, he will be highly unlikely to win the nomination on a subsequent ballot." [HuffPost]
SANDERS IS THE MOST POPULAR SENATOR; MCCONNELL IS LEAST - Morning Consult: “Sen. Bernie Sanders may have watched his final hopes of being the Democratic presidential nominee flame out Tuesday night, but when he eventually heads home he can return knowing the people of Vermont still love him….Sanders remains the most popular senator in America...with an 80 percent approval rating. Other presidential contenders saw mixed results from the campaign trail. Florida Republican Marco Rubio’s approval rating dropped 5 points from November, down to 45 percent. His disapproval ratings increased 8 points to 41 percent. Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who is still competing for the Republican nomination, saw his approval rating increase 3 points to 55 percent with Texans, while his disapproval numbers went down two points to 30 percent. The least popular senator also hasn’t changed since we last released these results: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has the highest disapproval rating in the Senate, with 49 percent of Kentuckians saying they don’t have a favorable impression of him.” [Morning Consult]
SOME DEMOCRATS ARE COOLING ON OBAMACARE - Kaiser Family Foundation: “Overall ratings of the [Affordable Care Act] lean negative this month, with 38 percent saying they have a favorable view and 49 percent saying they have an unfavorable view. The percentage of Democrats who have an unfavorable opinion of the law increased 6 percentage points to 25 percent, up from 19 percent last month. Of the Democrats who did not express a favorable opinion of the ACA, 40 percent want to expand what the law does, 20 percent do not know what they would like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care or mention something else, 19 percent want to repeal the entire law, 13 percent want to move forward with implementing the law as it is, and 9 percent want to scale back what the law does.” [Kaiser]
But another survey finds Democrats warming toward the law's legacy - Pew Research: “The public’s views of the Affordable Care Act, which were evenly divided following the Supreme Court’s ruling last summer upholding a key section of the law, are again more negative than positive….However, the balance of opinion about the law’s impact on the country has grown less negative over the past three years, even as slightly more continue to see the impact as negative than positive. Currently, 44% say the law’s impact on the country has been mostly negative, 39% say it has been mostly positive and 13% say it has not had much of an effect….Most of the rise in positive views of the law’s effect on the country has come among Democrats and independents. The share of Democrats who view the law’s impact on the nation positively has risen 24 percentage points (from 42% in December 2013 to 66% today), while the share of independents who say it has had a positive impact has risen from 17% in December 2013 to 36% today.” [Pew]
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THURSDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-The Upshot recalculates Donald Trump's odds of reaching 1,237 delegates. [NYT]
-More than half of Americans think the election system is rigged. [HuffPost]
-Many Americans don't know enough to have an opinion about trade treaties. [Gallup]
-About half of Republican Hill staffers think the White House will go to the Democrats. [Roll Call]
-Christie Aschwanden finds both Republicans and Democrats are increasingly worried about climate change. [538]
-Both black and white South Carolina residents still support the decision to remove the Confederate flag from their statehouse grounds. [Winthrop]
-Americans have a negative view of Wall Street, but don't want to enact a tax on stock market trades. [SurveyMonkey]
-The British public wants to hear more from businesses about the impact of the Brexit vote. [Ipsos]
-Most Americans believe that college is worth the high cost. [Marist]