Polls anticipated Tuesday night’s results, but understated the winners’ margins of victory. Most Facebook users don’t think they will take advantage of the new live video feature. And we're now tracking polling on the “Brexit” referendum. This is HuffPollster for Wednesday, April 27, 2016.
CLINTON AND TRUMP HAD THE BIG NIGHTS POLLS INDICATED THEY WOULD - Donald Trump swept all five states in Tuesday night’s Republican primaries, and Hillary Clinton took four of five on the Democratic side. HuffPost Pollster’s polling averages gave a pretty good indication of who would win, but generally underestimated Trump’s and Clinton's margins. They erred in a different direction in Connecticut, where polls overestimated Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and in Pennsylvania, where Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders outperformed the polling average.
TRUMP'S PATH TO THE NOMINATION IS GETTING EASIER - Nate Silver: “Two weeks ago, after a rough stretch of states for Trump, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a ‘path-to-1,237’ projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without having to rely on uncommitted delegates. With Trump’s terrific results in New York last week and even better ones in the five states that voted on Tuesday, Trump is actually running a little ahead of the path-to-1,237. Based on provisional results, it looks as though Trump will sweep every pledged delegate in Maryland (as a result of winning every congressional district), Connecticut (as a result of winning every congressional district and getting more than 50 percent of the vote statewide), Pennsylvania (where statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware (ditto), along with 11 of 19 delegates in Rhode Island (which is highly proportional).” [538]
He still needs to win Indiana - Scott Conroy: “While Trump’s standing in the race for the GOP nomination has never been stronger, demographics have proven more important than momentum in this race, and opportunities to deny him the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination on the first ballot at the party convention in Cleveland still exist. First comes Indiana, which will award 30 of its 57 delegates to the statewide winner of its primary, while allocating the remaining 27 delegates to the winners of its nine congressional districts. Trump has led in recent polls in Indiana and may gain a modest boost there from news of his victories on Tuesday. But the state’s deeply conservative Republican electorate figures to be a more natural fit for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has already notched big wins in other Midwestern states, including Iowa and Wisconsin. The Indiana primary will be the first test of the alliance between Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich against Trump.” [HuffPost]
Denying Trump the nomination would likely anger GOP voters - HuffPollster: "Trump remains as gleefully divisive a figure as ever. But in a primary dominated by voters who feel disenfranchised and betrayed by their party, it’s hard to envision anything more likely to engender backlash than Republican leaders deciding to nominate someone who’s won fewer votes than Trump — or none at all — based on the vagaries of delegate math. About two-thirds of Connecticut and Maryland primary voters think that the candidate who gets the most votes should win the nomination, even if that candidate fails to reach the 1,237-delegate majority needed to win outright, according to preliminary exit polls. Seventy percent of primary voters in Pennsylvania feel the same…. Nationwide, Republican voters say by a 50-point margin that it would be bad for the party to choose an alternate nominee." [HuffPost]
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HUFFPOST POLLSTER IS NOW TRACKING ‘BREXIT’ POLLS - British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens will vote on June 23 on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union. Public opinion on the issue is nearly evenly split. HuffPost Pollster’s new chart of the polling averages shows that 49 percent of U.K. citizens say the country should remain in the EU, and about 46 percent say they should leave the EU. About 6 percent are undecided, which could swing the vote in either direction.
MOST PEOPLE DON’T PLAN TO USE FACEBOOK LIVE VIDEOS - Damon Beres: "American adults say they aren’t sharing much on Facebook, and they’re not excited about the social network’s new Live video features. That’s according to a new poll from The Huffington Post and YouGov that measured current attitudes about Facebook. A full 77 percent of American adults surveyed who use Facebook said they would never broadcast live video of their lives on Facebook, while 59 percent said they had 'heard nothing at all' about the feature to begin with. Moreover, 37 percent said they 'hardly ever' post personal photos or videos on Facebook while 20 percent said they 'never' do. Only 3 percent said they post personal media every day. Twenty-eight percent said they use Facebook less now than they did a year ago, though 45 percent said they use it about the same amount." [HuffPost]
WEDNESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Jonathan Bernstein gives advice on how to interpret general election polls. [Bloomberg]
-Philip Bump doubts that supporters of losing primary candidates would ditch their parties. [WashPost]
-Kristen Soltis Anderson (R) says Trump is ruining the GOP's chances with young voters. [Washington Examiner]
-Adam Obeng argues that there's no such thing as bellwether counties. [HuffPost]
-Trump supporters are not exactly united in choosing America's greatest year. [NYT]
-Pew Research finds that more highly-educated adults have more polarized views. [Pew]
-Americans' confidence in the economy is the lowest it's been this year. [Gallup]
-Fuzzy California caterpillars might be the presidential election equivalent of groundhogs. [WashPost]