This is the second of our new weekly series previewing the college football game of the week, which comes out every Thursday afternoon. Last week, I correctly picked Wisconsin over Nebraska.
Texas-Oklahoma. The Red River Rivalry.
Stanford-Cal, dubbed 'The Big Game,' is no longer as big as it once was, and Notre Dame-USC and even Michigan-Ohio State have lost some of their luster. But the Red River Rivalry has managed to remain at the forefront of college football in recent years, and 2011 is no different.
Thanks in large part to the second generation of McCoy-to-Shipley and some timely trick plays, the Longhorns -- despite a heap of preseason criticism -- are ranked 11 in the country. Meanwhile, Bob Stoops has his Sooners rolling like it is 2000. Landry Jones has gone from unknown heir to Sam Bradford's throne to bonafide Heisman candidate, leading many to believe third-ranked Oklahoma is the team to beat in college football right now.
Let's look at some key bullet points for the game, which will kickoff at 12 EDT on ABC this Saturday.
1). Landry Jones is really, really good.
In his second season at the helm, Jones has already tossed 10 TDs to go along with a 164.9 quarterback rating. Reminiscent of Bradford, he has become adept at making pre-snap reads and clutch throws. But even more so than the former No. 1 pick, Jones -- who is making his 28th career start -- has elite arm strength and a real knack for the deep ball. Let us not forget that this is not the uber-athletic Will Muschamp Texas defense of 2009. Earl Thomas isn't tattooing receivers in the secondary and Brian Orakpo isn't coming off the edge. Then again, new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz does have some of the same principles. The Horns love to blitz and will put eight in the box. This is a very talented -- fifth nationally in pass efficiency -- but very young Texas secondary that will be without senior safety Christian Scott, who is nursing a wrist injury. Fifth year senior Ryan Broyles is the leading receiver in OU history and has an excellent rapport with Jones all over the field.
2). Um, the Texas QB situation?
As sure of a thing as Jones is on the other side, the Texas quarterback situation is still a question mark. Now that the ineffective Garret Gilbert is out for the season, the Longhorns rely on two young gunslingers, Case McCoy and David Ash. While McCoy is a bit more polished in the pocket and the clear-cut starter, Ash is the better athlete, capable of beating you with his legs. McCoy is completing over 70 percent of his passes -- many to freshman Jaxon Shipley -- and has yet to throw an interception since taking over as the starter. He manufactured a late-game comeback over BYU and has two road wins, but he hasn’t faced a caliber of defense anywhere close to Oklahoma's.
3). Tempo, tempo, tempo!
Oklahoma isn't quite the Oregon Ducks of 2010, but the Sooner offense is close. Rarely will more than 20 seconds elapse between plays. It will be very interesting to see how the young Texas defense responds. Last season, when many of these kids were freshmen and sophomores, OU's quick tempo was simply no match for the Longhorn squad. While Broyles is Mr. Dependable, Kenny Stills and Jaz Reynolds (23.4 yards per catch) are the two homerun threats that make this offense truly special. The more plays Oklahoma runs, the more chances for Jones to connect with his trio of weapons.
4). Beware of the trick play.
One of the best ways for Mack Brown and company to neutralize the lack of experience from Ash and McCoy is the trick play. The Longhorns have already shown a habit of using tricks so far this season. Last week in Ames they ran the wildcat six times (see 7:07). But that's Iowa State, not Oklahoma. When facing a veteran defense ranked 14 in the nation in points against, imposing the threat of the gimmick play could be vital to whether or not Texas wins this game.
5). Don’t forget about the Sooners' running game and shutdown defense.
Easily lost in all the talk of Landry Jones and the OU aerial attack is a quietly effective running game. Any offensive coordinator not named Mike Martz will tell you the key to moving the ball is a balanced offense and an established running game. First year co-offensive coordinators Josh Heupel and Jay Norvell have shown a steadfast commitment to the run thanks in large part to Dominique Whaley, who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and already has 7 touchdowns.
As much as Oklahoma hits you in the mouth with the run, it does so just as much on the other side of the ball. Corey Nelson is one of the most versatile defensive players in America (he reminds me of this guy) as both a vicious pass rusher and cover man. Jamarkus McFarland is a top 10 talent who will test a wildly inconsistent Texas offensive line early and often.
PICK: Oklahoma 34, Texas 20
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