“Saudi Arabia will never be the same again. The rain begins with a single drop.”
This was the response by Manal al-Sharif, who was arrested in 2011 after a driving protest, when the news broke that women in the kingdom will soon be able to drive.
The recent news of anticorruption related arrests, proposed economic reforms, and additional rights for women in Saudi Arabia has been met with a barrage of skepticism one might expect. In the West it is easy to mock, or even laugh at something like women getting the right to drive, while failing to appreciate how life-changing such a change is to half of Saudi Arabia’s population. The same applies to the other reforms starting to take place across the Kingdom. Instead of dismissing them as trivial we should see them as an opportunity.
The driving force for these recent changes and reforms in Saudi Arabia is the 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, known by the moniker MBS.
If his reforms are genuine, and if he can guide and lead their successful implementation, then this could be one of the most significant geo-political events during the first half of the 21st century. If he fails, it could lead to a geo-political disaster worthy of a similar accolade.
There are three main areas MBS has been focused on: anti-corruption, returning to “a more moderate Islam” and getting the economy on track for future challenges.
Regarding the recent arrests of government officials, businessmen, and princes, there has been a lazy tendency by commentators to claim that this was merely a classical power consolidation effort by the Crown Prince. But these arrests were not about MBS consolidating power ― he already consolidated power over the summer when he ascended to the role of Crown Prince by forcing out the powerful Mohammed bin Nayef.
Instead, the anti-corruption dismissals were likely driven by a fear of an Arab Spring style revolution from the bottom of society. It is important to note that Saudi’s population ballooned by 50% since 2000. Around 70% of Saudi’s population is under the age of 30. Much of the younger population see few economic opportunities and rampant corruption by the elites. But due to increasing access to the internet and social media many see that there is an alternative. Consequently, MBS realizes the status quo is unsustainable.
Instead of a revolution from the bottom, it is likely that MBS is bringing a revolution from the top. After all, an Arab Spring style revolution from the bottom would mean an end to the easy life many of the elites enjoy and probably the ultimate division of the country—the last thing the region needs right now. However, many of the elites will accept a revolution from the top as it preserves much of their status and wealth (albeit to a lesser degree).
In addition to the anti-corruption drive there have been developments on the human rights front. Last month MBS called for a “moderate, balanced Islam that is open to the world and to all religions and all traditions and peoples.”
Just weeks before the recent anticorruption crackdown, dozens of religious clerics, including some hardliners, were arrested. Although these detentions did not receive the same high profile coverage as the anticorruption arrests, they could have a profound effect on the future of Saudi Arabia.
In a stark change to previous policy, clerics have now also been instructed to speak publicly about respecting other religions. Last week, Lebanon’s Patriarch Beshara al-Rai, the head the of Maronite church (which follows an Eastern rite of the Roman Catholic church), visited Saudi Arabia.
An official visit to Saudi Arabia by such a senior Christian figure marks an exceptional act of religious openness for Saudi Arabia. Under normal circumstances this visit would mark an unusual and even a curious act of religious tolerance by Riyadh, but within the context of MBS’s recent actions it makes sense.
Regarding the future of the Saudi economy, many around the world are watching events unfold in the Kingdom and wondering what the investment or economic impact might be. The current challenges facing the Saudi economy are well known: an incredibly young population, falling oil prices, and massive government subsides. In part, the anticorruption drive, if done properly, will play a major role in reforming the economy.
To address these concerns last year MBS unveiled a significant economic reform plan called Saudi Vision 2030. The plan seeks to increase foreign investment and enhance the overall competitiveness of the economy by the private sector playing a bigger role.
On a positive note, in The Heritage Foundation’s 2017 Index of Economic Freedom Saudi Arabia ranks a modest, but respectable, 64th in the world in terms of economic freedom, placing ahead of European countries like France, Italy, and Spain.
It is too early to see how enduring MBS’ reforms and anticorruption efforts will be, but so far so good. We should also not be holding our breath— change in a place like Saudi Arabia can be painfully slow, maybe taking a generation.
But this is MBS’ generation and he seems to have enough self-awareness to know that things will have to change.