Can Democrats retake control of not just the House of Representatives but also the Senate in 2018? Well, they’d pretty much have to run the tables to do so, but with last night’s Alabama’s upset victory by Doug Jones, what has changed is that it is now a distinct possibility. While many Democrats are giddily celebrating their surprise win, they should also take the time to examine the factors present not just in Alabama but also in the other races that have happened over the past year, to identify the key factors in winning. Because if they’ve got any chance at all of taking the Senate, they should work as hard as possible to maximize what has been going well for them.
Before I get to that, let’s take a closer look at what happened last night in Alabama. The first and most obvious conclusion to draw is that Trump is now a three-time loser. He has blundered into three statewide races in the past two months, and he has wound up on the losing side in all three. First there was the governor’s race in Virginia, then the Alabama primary (where Trump backed the wrong horse), and then last night’s special Senate election where Trump actively campaigned for Roy Moore only to see him lose. That’s 0 for 3, folks. This might lead many Republican candidates next year to quietly beg the White House for President Trump not to get involved with their races, but it’s pretty early to predict that drastic a GOP move away from Trump. But there’s no denying it ― of late, the Trump ballot box magic does not extend to anyone not named “Trump,” it seems. This is no real surprise when his job approval ratings are so dismal (Monmouth just posted a poll where only 32 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump’s doing ― less than one-third of the public, in other words).
Even in Alabama, Trump doesn’t have the influence he once had. Last year, Trump won the state with 62 percent of the vote ― by a whopping 28 percent margin. In yesterday’s exit polls, this lead had evaporated completely. When Alabama voters were asked whether they approved of the job Trump was doing, the results were tied at 48 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. This means Trump support has eroded by the entirety of that 28 percent. In one year. In Alabama.
Disaffected Republicans were one of the keys to the Jones victory, pretty obviously. The election returns (as of last night) stood at: 49.9 percent Jones, 48.4 percent Moore, and a whopping 1.7 percent for write-in votes. This likely means Jones’s margin of victory was smaller than the number of Republicans who felt they had a civic duty to cast their vote, but just could not pull the lever for Roy Moore. Now, the final margin of error may change slightly over the next few days (as provisional ballots are certified and counted) but it’ll still likely be pretty close to where it is now, even if Jones’s margin winds up bigger than the write-in vote by a few tenths of a percent. That’s not likely to happen in any other race, and can squarely be attributed to the awfulness of Roy Moore as a candidate.
Some in the Republican Party were actively hostile to Moore’s campaign ― something else that may only be replicated next year if extreme Bannon-style candidates win the GOP Senate nominations. After the news of Jones’s victory broke, Republican Senator Jeff Flake (who had actually donated money to the Democrat Jones) tweeted: “Decency wins,” while Meghan McCain was more to the point: “Suck it, Bannon.” This is not exactly a unified party heading into midterm season, to put it mildly.
This should be the first lesson for Democrats considering what kind of campaign to run next year. There are plenty of negative feelings within the Republican Party towards other members of their party. These should be used in Democratic ads. One of the more startling numbers from recent Alabama polling was how Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is viewed in the state. Trump’s ratings have fallen considerably, but McConnell’s are even more dismal. Only 16 percent of Alabama voters have a favorable impression of McConnell, while a whopping 67 percent view him unfavorably. Republicans have written the playbook on how to use this to political advantage in advertising, and Democrats need to now use it against them. For every GOP ad demonizing Nancy Pelosi and/or Chuck Schumer in a local race, Democrats should run their own ads slamming McConnell and Paul Ryan. This stuff works, and Democrats should wake up and realize it. Like Trump, McConnell can be a drag on the GOP ticket.
But anti-Trump or anti-McConnell ads won’t be enough. This leads to the three biggest lessons Democrats should be learning while planning their 2018 campaigns: recruit good candidates, boost turnout every way you know how, and make healthcare (and, now, tax cuts for Wall Street) a key issue in your campaign.
First, the candidate is important. Roy Moore proved this beyond a shadow of a doubt, but so did Doug Jones. He had a strong background in the state’s politics, and he even overcame being pro-choice in a heavily anti-abortion state. He did a masterful job of keeping outsiders from within his own party at arm’s length during the campaign, avoiding the “people from OUT OF STATE are paying for his ads!” type of charge. Almost every state resents outsiders coming in to tell them who to elect, some more so than others. Barack Obama actively campaigned in Virginia’s election, but largely stayed out of Alabama (probably at Jones’s request). What works in one place doesn’t work in another.
When examining the chances Democrats may have of taking the Senate, it wasn’t just the Jones win that has recently changed the calculus. The two states to be most heavily targeted by Democrats (outside of the Alabama race) are generally agreed to be Nevada and Arizona. In Arizona, Jeff Flake is stepping down, leaving an open race in a state that may be trending blue (or at least purple). A Bannon-style candidate has a good chance of winning the Arizona GOP primary, too, which only increases the chances Democrats have of picking up the seat. But the announcement in Tennessee that former (and still popular) Democratic governor Phil Bredesen has thrown his hat in the ring for the Senate race there has many rethinking how many races Democrats may have a reasonable chance of winning.
There’s one other factor worth mentioning, even if it is morbid to contemplate. John McCain may not make it to next November. He has brain cancer, after all. If McCain became incapable of performing his duties (or if he dies in office), then there may be a special election next November to replace him. This would mean Arizona would have two open Senate races at the same time. This increases the chances that a Democrat could win at least one of them, obviously, but it also opens the door to a two-seat pickup, turning Arizona completely blue in the Senate. A long shot, to be sure, but worth mentioning at the very least.
Of course, Democrats will be defending many Senate seats in states that Trump won as well. Even with the four races listed above where Republicans will be playing defense, only a true wave election will give Democrats a fighting chance to win back control of the Senate (which will now only require a net two-seat pickup next year). And creating such a wave means boosting turnout. This is where Democrats are looking really great. In pretty much every election that has been held in 2017 ― even in the ones that Democrats lost ― Democrats have managed to turn out their voters at a much higher rate than usual, while Republican voting has either been stagnant or has fallen considerably. Take last night in Alabama, for instance. In raw numbers of votes, Doug Jones managed to get 92 percent as many votes as Hillary Clinton did one year earlier. But Moore only managed to turn out a dismal 49 percent of those who voted for Donald Trump. That’s a pretty stark difference, and it matches what happened in Virginia in November as well. Suburban voters are flocking to the polls, and they are voting overwhelmingly Democratic when they get there. The resistance persists, in other words. If Democrats can keep voter enthusiasm this high throughout 2018, they have a real shot at creating a wave election.
Of course, Democrats have to stand for something and not just against their Republican competitors. And Republicans have already given them two gigantic issues to use against them: healthcare and taxes. In Virginia, strongly supporting Obamacare and the Medicaid expansion was a central reason why the Democrat won the governor’s office. Doug Jones also ran heavily on healthcare. For almost a decade, Republicans have been winning elections by waving the red flag of Obamacare in front of their voters. But when the voters finally realized what “repeal and replace” actually meant, it turns out they were horrified. Republicans, this year, have done what Barack Obama and the Democratic Party hadn’t managed to yet do ― make Obamacare popular with the public. Voters now trust Democrats on healthcare much more than they do Republicans, so this issue should be hammered home by every Democratic candidate on the campaign trail. The GOP tax plan is even less popular than the GOP’s effort to kill Obamacare, so this will also be a key issue for Democrats to hammer next year: “Republicans promised a middle class tax cut and they lied to you and instead gave all the breaks to Wall Street and the ultrawealthy!”
Can the Democrats win back control of the Senate next year? Once almost unthinkable, this is now a distinct possibility. They’d have to absolutely run the table to do so, meaning it still only has a very slight chance of happening. Regaining control of the House is much more likely to happen. And yet... and yet... with Jones’s victory, Democrats are now eyeing complete control of Congress in a year’s time. This may all prove to be cockeyed optimism run amok, but that the possibility even now exists is certainly a big and welcome change for Democrats.
Chris Weigant blogs at: http://www.chrisweigant.com
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant