POLITICS

HUFFPOLLSTER: Democrats Are Rallying Around Hillary Clinton

A poll finds that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats has completely closed.

Hillary Clinton is benefiting from growing enthusiasm in her party. Voters are starting to hear a lot more from the campaigns. And Donald Trump is winning among Americans still living in their hometowns. This is HuffPollster for Friday, October 7, 2016.

DEMOCRATS ARE GROWING MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CLINTON - Kathy Frankovic: “Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton not only ‘won’ last week’s first presidential debate, but according to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, she managed to raise the enthusiasm of her supporters, erase some doubts about her health and stamina, and outscore Republican Donald Trump on a series of ‘presidential’ qualities, including temperament, qualifications and even appearance. The debate made little impact on vote preference – Clinton led Trump by three points among registered voters before the debate in a four-way contest, and she led Trump by the same margin afterwards. 43% say they will vote for Clinton in the four-way contest this week, while 40% favor Trump.  But Clinton’s supporters clearly are feeling better about her candidacy now than they were before the debate. They are now just as likely as Trump‘s voters to say they are enthusiastic about their party’s nominee.  Last week, there was a 13-point gap in enthusiasm. The enthusiasm gap narrowed not only because Clinton’s voters are happier with her candidacy.  The percentage of Trump voters who say they are enthusiastic about his position as the GOP nominee dropped six points after the debate.” [YouGov

Concerns about Clinton’s health are down - HuffPollster: “Voters are once again convinced that Hillary Clinton is in good enough physical shape to serve as president, according to new Economist/YouGov polling. Fifty-two percent of registered voters now say that the Democratic presidential nominee is physically strong enough, up 7 points from a poll taken just before the first presidential debate.Confidence in Clinton’s physical health dropped precipitously after she was filmed collapsing at an event commemorating 9/11. A significant percentage of Democrats said they were unsure if she was in good enough shape to serve as president. But in the most recent survey, 80 percent of all Democrats say Clinton is healthy enough.” [HuffPost]

CURRENT HUFFINGTON POST FORECAST - Hillary Clinton has an 83.7 percent chance of winning the presidential election. Republicans have a 67 percent chance of keeping the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

NEARLY HALF OF VOTERS HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY CAMPAIGNS - Pew Research: “In the final month before the election, the presidential campaigns are expected to dramatically intensify their voter outreach efforts. Even so, almost half of registered voters (47%) had already received some form of contact from one of the campaigns or groups supporting them as of last month….28% of voters have received an email from at least one of the campaigns, another 22% have received printed mail in support of a candidate, 17% said they got a pre-recorded phone call or ‘robocall’ and 10% said they received a call from a live person….Voters supporting Donald Trump are more likely than Hillary Clinton supporters to report having received a pre-recorded phone call from one of the campaigns (23% vs. 13%), while Clinton supporters are more likely than Trump supporters to say they have received an email (32% vs 26%)....Over half of those 65 and older (56%) have reported receiving at least one form of contact by the campaigns, a stark comparison to the 37% of voters 18-29 who say the same.” [Pew

TRUMP FARES BETTER AMONG VOTERS STILL LIVING IN THEIR HOMETOWNS - Andrew McGill: “How people plan to vote appears to correspond, albeit broadly, with whether they decided to move away from where they grew up. According to the just-released PRRI/The Atlantic poll, 40 percent of Donald Trump’s likely voters live in the community where they spent their youth, compared with just 29 percent of Hillary Clinton voters. And of the 71 percent of Clinton voters who have left their hometowns, most—almost 60 percent of that group—now live more than two hours away. The effect is even stronger among white voters, who already tend toward Trump. Even a bit of distance matters: Trump wins by 9 points among white likely voters who live within two hours of their childhood home, but by a whopping 26 percent among whites who live in their hometown proper.” [Atlantic, PRRI]

WHAT THE LATEST STATE POLLS SHOW:

-FLORIDA: The University of North Florida gives Hillary Clinton a 7-point lead over Donald Trump, 47 percent to 40 percent, her best numbers since the summer. HuffPost Pollster’s average gives her a more modest 2.5-point edge. [UNF, chart]

-MARYLAND: The Washington Post and the University of Maryland find Clinton leading by a whopping 36 points, 63-27, with Senate candidate Chris Van Hollen (D) 29 points ahead of his Republican rival. Pollster’s average puts Clinton up by 28 in the presidential race. [WashPost, chart]

-MASSACHUSETTS: Western New England University gives Clinton a 32-point lead over Trump, 58 percent to 26 percent.Pollster’s average shows her ahead by about 23. [WNEU, chart]

-MICHIGAN: EPIC-MRA polling for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ shows Clinton leading by 10 points, 46 percent to 36 percent, her best numbers in the state since early August. Pollster’s average gives her about a 6-point advantage. [Detroit Free Press, chart]

-NEW HAMPSHIRE: Suffolk University and the Boston Globe find Clinton leading by 2 points, 44 percent to 42 percent. Pollster’s average has her up by nearly 5 points. [Boston Globe, chart]

-OHIO: PPP (D) gives Clinton a 1-point edge over Trump, 44 percent to 43 percent. Pollster’s average, not yet including that survey, has Trump ahead by just under 2 points. [PPP, chart]

-TENNESSEE: Vanderbilt University and PSRAI find Trump up by 11 points, 44-33; Middle Tennessee State University shows him winning by 12, 48-36. Pollster’s average gives Trump a lead of more than 14 points. [Vanderbilt, MTSU, chart]

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FRIDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley find Hillary Clinton back on track to win more than 300 electoral votes. [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

-More than a quarter of voters say their choice is motivated primarily by opposition to the opposing candidate. [Gallup]

-Justin Gross predicts that Clinton could win Latinos by a historically lopsided margin. [Latino Decisions]  

-Pew Research and the Markle Foundation examine Americans’ concerns about the nation’s changing workforce. [Pew]

-Maki Naro offers an illustrated guide to social science’s “replication crisis.” [The Nib]

-A new report looks at how Millennials differ from other generations. [Ipsos]

-Matt Moffett investigates why polls missed on the Colombia-FARC peace deal referendum. [Vox]

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