Democrats are closing the gap in the heated race to control the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections, according to recent surveys and political analysts.
Though Republicans are generally still expected to take a majority in the House — for now — the races are growing tighter.
Republicans have held a narrow lead over Democrats this year in polls asking which party voters would support in a congressional election. But FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates top public-opinion surveys, reported that Democrats grabbed a half-percentage point advantage this month.
FiveThirtyEight attributes the gain and surprise wins for Democrats in two New York special elections earlier this month to anger about the Republican-hailed death of Roe v. Wade. “If the midterms were tomorrow, the Republicans might be in trouble,” one of FiveThirtyEight’s recent podcasts noted.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s approval rating has also ticked up. A recent Gallup survey put Biden’s job approval rating at 44%, the highest in a year.
In terms of House seats, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report lowered its projection for GOP pickups to between 10 to 20 seats — down from its previous 15 to 30 seats.
Cook also didn’t rule out the possibility that Democrats could hold on to the majority with an increased voter turnout, which is widely expected this year from an agitated electorate.
Typically, the party in power “doesn’t improve its electoral prospects in the final months of a midterm, but that’s where we appear to be,” noted Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin of nonpartisan election watcher Inside Elections, The Wall Street Journal reported.
They also chalk up Democrats’ improving fortunes to anger at Republicans over the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade — as well as to weak Republican candidates in key races, ongoing investigations into Donald Trump, and a drop in gas prices.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) last week rained on Republicans’ parade when he indicated the GOP might not do so well in the Senate because of issues with candidate “quality.”
“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell told reporters, NBC News reported. “Senate races are just different — they’re statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”
McConnell didn’t name candidates he believe are quality-challenged. But his dig reflected frustrations in the GOP about controversial Republican Senate candidates endorsed by Trump with little or no political experience who are stumbling in general election polls. Those include most notably former TV personality Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, author and investment banker J.D. Vance in Ohio, and former football star Herschel Walker in Georgia.
As for Democrats, Jaime Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the “momentum” for the party is “real.”
He predicts the Democrats will gain Senate seats and hang on to the House majority.
Centrist Republican Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland is not optimistic the GOP will take the Senate or any extra gubernatorial seats. He, like, McConnell, complained about “weak candidates.”
But Hogan is hopeful Republicans will grab the House.
This year was a great opportunity for Republicans, Hogan said on “Face the Nation.”
“But we could blow it by nominating unelectable people — and that’s exactly what’s happening across the country and why the wave is going to be more of a ripple rather than a tidal wave,” he said.