HUFFPOLLSTER: Democrats Have A Solid Chance Of Retaking The Senate

HuffPost’s poll-based model indicates Senate Republicans could be in trouble.

Current Senate polls indicate Republicans are likely to lose control of the chamber. Donald Trump’s ceiling of support may be getting lower. And only about half of voters are very confident that their votes will be counted correctly. This is HuffPollster for Monday, August 22, 2016.

THINGS AREN’T LOOKING GREAT FOR REPUBLICANS IN THE SENATE - HuffPollster: “The biggest electoral question of the year is undoubtedly who becomes the next president. But just after that follows the issue of whether the Senate majority will flip again. Republicans took the chamber with a 54-46 seat majority in the 2014 midterm elections. Keeping that lead in 2016, however, will prove a more difficult task. According to The Huffington Post’s Senate model, which relies on the polls aggregated in HuffPost Pollster charts, there’s a 55 percent chance that the Senate will swing completely over ― and a 23 percent chance that it’s tied at 50 seats for each party. That means there’s a 78 percent chance that the Democratic Party could get 50 or more seats.” [HuffPost]

Some caveats - More from HuffPollster: “First, this model does not project out to Election Day. These figures are based on what polling and Cook Political Report ratings say about the races now.... There’s one big reason for focusing the model on what we know now: Events that would substantially shake up the races are generally unpredictable. Poll numbers will wax and wane, and this model accounts for that. What it can’t account for (and no model can) is a big change in circumstances that would alter the election such as occurred in 2008 when the economy crashed in mid-September. All the model really does is say what is most likely given the current trajectory.” [HuffPost]

We’ll provide updates for the model in this newsletter.

HALF OF VOTERS SAY THEY WOULDN’T EVER VOTE FOR TRUMP - Cameron Easley and Eli Yokley: “A new Morning Consult survey testing the ceiling of support for the presidential candidates suggests it’s an uphill climb for the GOP nominee: Trump has crossed the 50 percent threshold, but in the wrong direction. In a new poll this week, half of all voters said they would definitely not consider voting for Trump, while 45 percent of respondents said they definitely wouldn’t consider voting for Clinton….But, the GOP nominee can take solace in some of the other numbers on candidates’ ceilings: Clinton seems more likely to lose votes to the other candidates in the race. While 28 percent of Clinton and Trump supporters say they would consider voting for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a former Republican governor of New Mexico, more than a quarter (27 percent) of those currently planning on voting for Clinton said they’d consider backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Only 14 percent of Trump supporters say they would consider voting for Stein.” [Morning Consult]

MANY REPUBLICANS THINK TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN IS BADLY RUN - William Jordan: “Even before the week’s campaign shake-up, 66% of Americans said his campaign was ‘poorly managed’. Only 22% say the campaign is ‘well run’.  Even many Republicans are having doubts. Meanwhile 55% say Clinton is running her campaign well. There are obvious disadvantages to running a campaign badly, including difficulties getting a message out before election day and getting the vote out on election day. But substandard campaign management can also reflect poorly on the campaign itself, creating a vicious cycle. In fact 39% of registered voters say a presidential candidate’s ability to manage his or her campaign affects how they view that candidate ‘a great deal’, while another 41% say it affects their view at least a ‘moderate amount’.” [YouGov]

VOTERS EXPRESS SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE ELECTORAL PROCESS - Hannah Fingerhut: “In a campaign marked by skepticism toward the political process, only about half of all registered voters (49%) are ‘very confident’ that their vote will be accurately counted in the upcoming election....Pew Research Center’s new national political survey finds that just 38% of registered voters who support Trump are very confident their vote will be accurately counted. Another 31% say they are somewhat confident, while 30% have little or no confidence their vote will be counted accurately. Among Clinton supporters, 67% have a high degree of confidence that their vote will be counted accurately and 25% are somewhat confident. Just 7% have little or no confidence.” [Pew Research]

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MONDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Nate Silver notes that national polls, unlike state-level polls, show the presidential race tightening. [538]

-New CBS/YouGov polls find Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Ohio and tied in Iowa. [CBS]

-Grace Sparks writes that Barack Obama’s rising approval rating could help Clinton in swing states. [HuffPost]

-David Rothschild expresses concerns about the methodology used by the USC/LA Times tracking poll. [PredictWise]

-More than 60 percent of Americans support automatic voter registration. [Gallup]

-Shahrzad Sabet argues that nationalism and prejudice drive opinions on free trade. [WashPost]

-Most parents think that their children get enough sleep. [HuffPost]