If you are not sure where you stand on the Iran deal, I made a handy flowchart to help you figure it out.
Originally appeared on Bold Type magazine.
Nathan Gonzalez, Ph.D., is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and founding editor of Nortia Press. His research focuses on Iran and sectarian conflict in the Middle East. Online: www.NathanGonzalez.com.
Iran currently has enough enriched uranium to build a bomb in as little as three months. (The Washington Institute, "Iran's Current Breakout Time: A Fact Sheet." March 28, 2015.)
Less than one week after the deal was signed European delegations rushed to strike lucrative deals in Iran. (Alisa Rubin, "After Iran Deal, Europeans Are Eager to do Business in Iran," The New York Times. August 1, 2015.) While the deal makes sanctions "snap back" into place if Iran cheats, it is unlikely that European countries will walk away from financial benefits if America is seen as a deal-spoiler that offers no alternatives.
Like Cuba showed us, countries can survive very punishing sanctions for a very long time. If Iran does not want to go the Cuba route, it could build a bomb to use as leverage and negotiate away the sanctions. It is unlikely that America would get better terms under such a scenario.
No negotiated settlement gives both sides everything they want. But this nuclear deal contains a lot that America wants, including the destruction of 95% of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. It also offers the most stringent verification mechanisms in history. ("Iran Nuke Deal Depends on Most Instrusive Inspection System Ever," McClatchy DC. July 14, 2015.)
- Many of the same people opposing this deal once told us that the Iraq war (2003 - 2011) would be a breeze.
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