Donald Trump and the Two Republican Parties

CARMEL, IN - MAY 02:  Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop at the Palladium at the Ce
CARMEL, IN - MAY 02: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop at the Palladium at the Center for the Performing Arts on May 2, 2016 in Carmel, Indiana. Trump continues to campaign leading up to the Indiana primary on May 3. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

On Tuesday, November 3, 1964 the Republican candidate, Barry Goldwater, lost the presidential election to Lyndon B. Johnson by nearly 20 points. It was the most lopsided victory since James Monroe's re-election in 1820.

After Goldwater's defeat, Republican strategists set a course that would eventually return the presidency to the party in 1981. Their formula to Ronald Reagan distilled to a simple phrase, "compassionate conservatism."

Compassionate conservatism was a bridge to voters who believed in a moral majority and up-by-the-bootstraps personal responsibility in place of government regulation. Faith was the glue that held the bridge together. Faith and political money from business.

Trump's victory in Indiana yesterday marked the improbable collapse of that Republican bridge. Donald Trump, in a unique way, outed compassionate conservatism.

Despite the best efforts of handlers to moderate his political instincts -- Trump emerged as a de novo creation of disaffected GOP voters who are neither compassionate nor conservative. What they are, mainly, is angry.

In the past, the business community in America -- through organizations like the US Chamber of Commerce, its state and local affiliates -- was politically neutral. That changed in the 1980's and early 1990's when Chamber members began to experience both the opportunities and perils of mature markets upset by technological revolution and borderless commerce.

In the 1960's, after Goldwater, a business elite coalesced against what they believed to be the fundamental threat: angry baby-boomers who opposed the war in Vietnam, choosing liberation and smoking pot instead of working to make America great again.

Democrats were perceived as favoring ossified restrictions -- the unions -- at the expense of shareholders and business owners. Despite Bill Clinton's strategy of "triangulation", business dropped its agnosticism and sought safe harbor with the GOP.

Something changed in 2015: the angriest primary voters were Republican.

Donald Trump's victory -- an insurgency against the GOP status quo -- tore to pieces what the opposition could never have achieved. Trump's appeal to Republican primary voters is that he will not be controlled by a GOP status quo that failed to deliver a safer and economically secure America.

The Republicans who voted for Trump aren't worried about morality or marijuana, they are worried about the crystal meth lab down the street. They aren't worried about lefty Democrats, they are furious with oligarchs who moved jobs and capital overseas. Faith and morality -- contrary to Ted Cruz's exhortations -- don't mean so much. Call it the Dennis Hastert effect.

After 20 plus years of success by GOP message makers, this year core Republican voters said enough: give us a billionaire who doesn't need money from the corporate elite. Give us a celebrity who puts his stamp on everything from skyscrapers to bottled water. Give us, GOP, change we can believe in: Donald Trump.

The angst of the GOP is real. Not a single, pre-approved candidate to be president, beginning with Jeb Bush, could sell the angry GOP voter. Without values voters, including the moral majority and Chamber of Commerce wrapped in compassion, the GOP center does not hold, or, will only hold in districts, in state legislative or Congressional races where its money advantage is overwhelming.

Chances are that in the general presidential election, GOP money will leave Donald Trump alone. For top funders, the goal will be to retain the US Senate and their dominance of executive and legislative branches in the states. They will help Donald Trump in one key way: continue to fund mistrust of Hilary Clinton. When Hilary wins, she will be a centrist they can deal with, just like they dealt with Lyndon Johnson.