There Is A Method To His Madness...
We'll see if the Cruz strategy works.
Antonin Scalia died on Saturday. Donald Trump went into full attack mode in the debate that night. Still, the Scalia story continued. Would anyone have been surprised if Mr. Trump tweeted "Long ago, even before Justice Roberts approved Obamacare twice, I predicted that Scalia would die someday and create a divisive vacancy"?
Today, Mr. Trump, asked to defend his assertion that he opposed the Iraq war before it started, replied simply that he was not a politician, so there might not be a public record of his opposition. But his repeated statement that we have lost too many lives and too much treasure in stupid wars in the Mideast resonates, as perhaps it should.
More importantly, Mr. Trump controls the news cycle, so he appears to be a leader. Besides Scalia, the week's headline should be: "George W. Bush Campaigns in South Carolina for Jeb." Instead, Trump effectively book-ends "W"s visit, pre-empting the former president's emergence from hibernation, putting the brothers on defense. "W" gave a Bill Clinton-like funny, upbeat and persuasive speech, but it won't give Jeb the win he needs. Jeb gave a nice forceful talk, but his candidacy remains a non-sequitur, and Trump got that long ago.
As Peggy Noonan and others have pointed out, Jeb's campaign at times seems silly, as when he says his father is "the greatest man alive." And he's tired of "attacks on his mother and his brother." It's almost as if he's an adolescent trying to learn the ropes.
In contrast, Trump knows that South Carolina conservatives, like conservatives in other states, are open to populism. Among evangelicals, Trump showed in Iowa he could be competitive. And the military voters are attracted to Trump's "I'm the most militaristic who will make the military so strong no one will mess with us." Against that, Jeb's "People are looking at me because they want a guy who can be the commander-in-chief" is unconvincing. Trump knows that many national security voters doubted the Iraq war or questioned how it was fought.
Trump has a strategy, and his tactics serve it. Running first in Iowa polls, he gambled on boycotting the Fox debate; he lost the caucuses, partly for that reason. Even so, he looked decisive. And again, in South Carolina, he inexplicably acts like he's running far behind, taking calculated risks. Is he a master chess player, or has he gone too far, with blowback on the horizon?
Leftist Van Jones on CNN was stunned that Trump on the matter of 9/11 failed to fault Democrat Bill Clinton for passing up the opportunity to kill Osama bin Laden, or Democrat Barack Obama for enabling ISIS. Instead, Trump focused gratuitously and solely on George W. Bush. Against Jeb's "My brother kept us safe after 9/11," Trump rhetorically asked, "What about before 9/11?" At times, Trump spoke plausibly of President Bush's "mistake," but then he suggested implausibly that Bush lied about weapons of mass destruction. That could be the Trump who lacks a tactical proofreader.
Yet, Trump is playing for high stakes. He is acting like the Republican nomination is his, and he is in the general election campaign. He is telegraphing to many Democrats and independents that he not a Republican apologist. But he also is damaging what's left of the Republican brand and depreciating the legacy of the most recent Republican president. Still, his heavy attacks on Jeb, Cruz and other Republicans (some now out of the race) have telegraphed to some Republican voters that Trump is "tough enough" for November.
Still, in politics, as elsewhere, you don't normally hit a guy while he's down. But Jeb was up, in the beginning. And Trump realized early there was no narrative for Jeb's run, and Jeb was schizoid. Jeb started as "Jeb!" but surrounded himself with his father's and brother's hacks. Jeb continues to be a prop for Trump, who initially attacked the awkward ("Here's the deal") Jeb as "low energy" to contrast with himself -- take-charge ("I make good deals") Trump. More recently, Trump used Jeb as a prop for the Establishment as he urged voters to compare Jeb's faltering $130 million campaign with his own, spending a fraction, but putting him in first place. That's the way a businessman does it.
Trump says Cruz is "unhinged...unstable... can't withstand the pressure and lies so much he is disgusting...I've never met a politician who lies more than Ted Cruz....He is the most dishonest politician I have ever met...a bad guy...a nasty guy." Trump says Cruz in Iowa mailed a "fraudulent document," then lied by spreading election day rumors about Ben Carson dropping out, possibly cheating Carson out of second place, and thus depriving Trump of first place, and that Cruz then lied to Ben Carson. As I predicted in an analysis of evangelicals, Trump would reprise these issues to try to impeach Cruz.
And for good measure, Trump questions the faith of Ted Cruz. "It is hard to believe that a person who claims to be a Christian could be so dishonest and lie so much," said Trump, who said he would sue Cruz about his Canadian birth unless he "takes down his false ads and retract his lies." Trump sees Cruz as his immediate threat, just as he did in Iowa. That's why he let Cruz and Rubio fight it out in the debate, and why he goes after Cruz so intently.
We'll see if the Cruz strategy works. Cruz attacks Trump on issues, for example, Trump's support for "universal health care." Trump replies he merely wants whatever works to "take care of the people" so they are not "dying in the middle of the street." A half century ago, Ronald Reagan's campaign slogan for governor was "Common sense answers to California's problems." Trump now calls himself a "common sense conservative."
Appeared earlier in:
http://www.westernjournalism.com/there-is-a-method-to-his-madness/