Americans’ resentment toward Washington and near-record mistrust of most institutions helped fuel a Republican primary dominated by outsider candidates. Now, voters see that same dissatisfaction as the GOP’s most valuable asset in its effort to retake the White House.
In a new HuffPost/YouGov survey, two-thirds of registered voters say that Americans’ current feelings about the government likely boost Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House.
Most registered voters also think Trump benefits from other factors outside his control, such as Barack Obama’s record as president and the current state of the nation’s economy and foreign policy. In contrast, they’re split as to whether one of Trump’s signature acts of demagoguery, his promise to build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, will help or hurt him.
Among Republican voters in particular, those national factors are also seen as more helpful to the GOP’s chances than their nominee’s own record. Eighty-two percent think Obama’s legacy will be a boon to Trump, while 79 percent and 80 percent, respectively, say the current state of the economy and the way Americans feel about the government will work to Trump’s advantage. Fewer ― 71 percent and 63 percent, respectively ― cite Trump’s work as a businessman or his selection of vice presidential nominee Mike Pence as advantages.
Those results highlight a peculiar contradiction of the 2016 race. Historically, strong presidential approval ratings and economic numbers have translated into an advantage for the incumbent party. Obama’s popularity is on the upswing, as are views on his economic record ― two factors that would seem to augur well for Hillary Clinton’s chances in November.
This year, however, voters don’t necessarily agree. Despite their rising opinion of Obama, most still see the country as being on the wrong track and would rather the next president take the country in a different direction ― something they doubt Clinton will do. Some political forecasters have suggested this desire for change could give the GOP a reasonable shot at victory.
That is, if the Republicans had a different nominee. But Trump’s high unfavorability ratings, perceived lack of qualifications and chaotic campaign have put him at a disadvantage, and Clinton held a consistent lead in most pre-convention national polls. Sixty-two percent of all registered voters, including 40 percent of Republicans, say that Trump wasn’t the GOP’s best option.
The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted July 19 through July 20 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.
The Huffington Post has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls. You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. Data from all HuffPost/YouGov polls can be found here. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here.
Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample, rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.
Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims ― 1.6 billion members of an entire religion ― from entering the U.S.