Donald Trump repeatedly vowed to revive American manufacturing when he campaigned for the presidency. But more than three years into Trump’s administration, factory activity has sunk to a 10-year low, battered by Trump’s trade war with China.
“We will bring back our jobs. We’ll bring back our wealth, and we will bring back our dreams,” Trump said at his inauguration after promising a manufacturing “renaissance.”
But a monthly index of manufacturing activity plunged in December to the lowest level since 2009 ― lower than analysts had predicted. December was the fifth consecutive month of shrinking activity.
Demand continued to drop, with factories reporting the lowest level of new orders in more than a decade. Manufacturing employment is at the lowest since the start of 2016.
“This is a seriously weak report, and we see little chance of a sustained near-term recovery,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.
The expected “phase one” trade deal with China this month will still leave 25% tariffs on key imports, Shepherdson noted. That means American manufacturers will continue to pay higher costs for imported parts. Shepherdson sees little chance of a comprehensive deal to eliminate the tariffs before November’s election.
A study released in December by economists for the Federal Reserve found that the Trump trade war tariffs were linked to reductions in manufacturing employment and increases in producer prices. The “small positive effect” of protective tariffs to keep foreign competitors at bay was more than offset by the rising costs of imports and retaliatory tariffs, the study found.
The economists also noted that Trump’s trade war fails to recognize the sophisticated interconnection of global supply chains that benefits U.S. companies.
“The manufacturing recession continues,” Shepherdson wrote. “The trade war is the only realistic explanation.”
