Prediction markets show that Trump is the most likely Republican nominee, despite weeks of bad press. Most Republican voters would be OK with Ted Cruz convincing delegates to vote for him. And Hillary Clinton isn't only winning conservative states. This is HuffPollster for Monday, April 18, 2016.
TRUMP’S LIKELIHOOD OF BEING THE NOMINEE IS REBOUNDING - David Rothschild: "Donald Trump has a 62 percent chance of being the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton has a 92 percent chance to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president has a 74 percent chance to win the general election. It may be surprising that Trump is still at 62 percent to win the nomination despite all of the doom-and-gloom in the press about him failing or not wanting it. But, Trump has 742 pledged delegates to Ted Cruz’s 529 and he is about to go on a roll….He is heavily favored in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island." [HuffPost]
Note: Prediction market estimates change frequently. The above numbers were current as of the article’s publication on Sunday, April 17.
It’s not just the prediction markets that say Trump is up - Bettors are probably considering polls when they make their wagers in the prediction markets, and polls show that Trump is favored to win by more than 30 points in New York’s primary on Tuesday. HuffPost Pollster’s averages also show him up by nearly 20 points in Pennsylvania and Maryland, which vote on Tuesday, April 26. There aren’t enough recent polls in the rest of the April 26 states -- Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island -- to calculate averages.
MOST REPUBLICANS SAY CRUZ CONVINCING DELEGATES TO SWITCH IS ACCEPTABLE - Mark Murray: "According to the NBC/WSJ poll, 55 percent of Republican primary voters say it's acceptable to them if Cruz wins the nomination by convincing the delegates from other candidates to support him….Just 38 percent of Republicans say it's acceptable if Trump goes into the Republican convention with the most delegates but does not become the nominee, versus 54 percent who say that outcome is unacceptable. And only 20 percent say it's acceptable if Republican delegates choose a nominee who has not run in the primaries, versus 71 percent who think that's unacceptable." [NBC]
CLINTON ISN’T ONLY WINNING CONSERVATIVE STATES - Philip Bump: "Sanders's most common articulation of Clinton's non-liberalness is by dismissing her biggest wins as coming from more-conservative areas. He's repeatedly waved away Clinton's wins in the South as being from a more conservative area. Depending on how you divvy up the 'parts of the country,' Sanders is correct….That blurs a point that's often been made in response to Sanders: He's won a lot of conservative states, too, like Idaho, Oklahoma and Wyoming. Clinton has done well in a number of very-conservative states, but so has Sanders. In fact, if you take Vermont out of the mix -- a very liberal state that backed its senator by a wide margin -- there's essentially no correlation between the conservativeness of the state and the margin of victory for either candidate." [WashPost]
The states where Clinton is winning look like Obama’s coalition - Nate Silver: "Clinton’s largest net delegate gains over Sanders came from Texas (+72) and Florida (+68), two states that are within the South... Clinton also cleaned Sanders’s clock in Virginia and North Carolina. Overall, Clinton gained a net of 155 delegates on Sanders in the five Deep South states, but she also added 211 delegates to her margin in the rest of the region. In addition to being important to the Democratic Party’s electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse…. In fact, these states are among the most demographically representative of the diverse Obama coalition that Clinton or Sanders will have to rely on in November….Clinton has won or is favored to win almost every state where the turnout demographics strongly resemble those of Democrats as a whole." [538]
AMERICANS HAVE MIXED VIEWS ON FRACKING - Kate Sheppard and Laura Barron-Lopez: "In this week’s tight New York Democratic primary, the fight over hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is one issue of contention between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton….Sanders’ position on fracking may help him in fracking-wary New York, but a national HuffPost/YouGov poll of 1,000 adults found that more Americans sided with Clinton’s approach of tightening regulations without banning the practice. Thirty-four percent said they 'strongly' or 'somewhat' agree with Sanders, while 41 percent said they agree with Clinton. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said the presidential candidates’ positions on fracking are important to their voting decision. Curiously, more respondents said they opposed fracking than said they supported it. Thirty-three percent of respondents 'strongly' or 'somewhat' support fracking; 37 percent said they 'strongly' or 'somewhat' oppose it. An additional 30 percent said they weren’t sure." [HuffPost]
SANDERS’ POPULARITY COULD FALL IN A GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN - HuffPollster: “In an election year that’s produced a slate of notably unpopular frontrunners in both parties, Sanders stands out for his positive image.But there’s a limit to how well polling on hypothetical matchups can predict what will happen in the fall….That caveat is especially relevant in the case of Sanders, who prior to this election had a low national profile compared to his rivals. It’s undeniably to Sanders’ advantage that he’s a fresh face, especially in a year brimming with anti-establishment energy….The relative lack of political scrutiny he’s faced, though, leaves more room for Sanders to be defined negatively over the course of a general election….Sanders has also faced very little in the way of negative advertising. Of the roughly $383 million spent on campaign television advertising so far this year, only about 2 percent has gone to anti-Sanders ads, according to Elizabeth Wilner of the research firm Kantar Media.” [HuffPost]
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THE WEEKEND’S POLLS
-New York polls consistently show Donald Trump leading the GOP primary by about 30 points and Hillary Clinton up against Bernie Sanders by 10 to 15 points. [CBS/YouGov, Emerson College]
-Both Trump and Clinton have sizeable leads in California, with Trump also leading in Pennsylvania. [CBS/YouGov]
-Hillary Clinton’s favorability ratings continue to drop, but they're not as low as Trump’s. [WSJ/NBC]
-President Obama's approval rating remains positive. [Gallup]
MONDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Americans are more than twice as likely to call the Republican presidential campaign rude than to say the same about the Democratic primary. [AP]
-Just 6 percent of Americans have a great deal of trust in the press. [HuffPost]
-Reid Wilson thinks Donald Trump is headed for a series of big wins in upcoming contests. [Morning Consult]
-Republican voters in the Bronx have an outsized influence in the GOP primary . [NYT]
-A YouGov poll finds the Brits very narrowly in favor of staying in the European Union. [Reuters]
-Katelyn Ferral answers questions about the Marquette University Law School poll. [Madison]