Half of those who view Donald Trump favorably have doubt about the accuracy of November’s vote count. Hillary Clinton has slightly better favorable ratings than Trump. And Ohio might be on the losing side of this election. This is HuffPollster for Monday, October 3, 2016.
MANY TRUMP SUPPORTERS DON’T THINK VOTES WILL BE COUNTED CORRECTLY - Jonathan Lemire and Emily Swanson: “Donald Trump is making the unprecedented assertion that the general election ‘is going to be rigged,’ and many people who are drawn to his presidential campaign have major doubts about the accuracy of the Nov. 8 vote. Only about one-third of Republicans say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that votes on Election Day will be counted fairly, according to a poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Half the people who have a favorable opinion of the Republican nominee say they have little to no confidence in the integrity of the vote count, the poll finds…. Such fears of voter fraud are unfounded. There is no evidence it is a widespread problem in the United States…. Still, among people overall, only 4 in 10 have a lot of confidence in votes being counted accurately, though an additional 3 in 10 say they’re at least moderately confident. Fifty-nine percent of those who have a favorable opinion of Trump’s Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, have quite a bit or a great deal of confidence, compared with just 29 percent of those who have a favorable opinion of Trump.” [AP]
CLINTON’S SLIGHT FAVORABLE RATING EDGE COULD GIVE HER AN ADVANTAGE - Harry Enten: “Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two most disliked presidential nominees in modern American history…. But equating Clinton’s and Trump’s popularity problems misses a meaningful part of the story. Sure, they both have terrible favorability ratings compared to past presidential candidates, but Clinton has consistently been more popular than Trump, and we’re now at the point in the campaign when that difference suggests Clinton has a clear advantage. The trend in Trump’s and Clinton’s net favorability ratings tracks with the horse-race polls and the overall trajectory of the race….Yet, unlike the horse race, Trump has never truly moved to within striking distance of Clinton’s net favorability rating except for that brief moment after the GOP convention.” 
Last Monday’s debate might have boosted Clinton’s favorability rating - Scott Clement and Emily Guskin: “The debate appears to have had only a slight impact on each candidate’s popularity [in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll], though if anything it aided Clinton. Trump’s 34 percent favorable rating among all Americans is little changed from 35 percent before the debate, but his unfavorable mark has crept up from 59 to 64 percent. Clinton’s 45 percent mark is slightly above her 41-percent mark less than two weeks ago, while unfavorable opinions have ticked down an insignificant two points to 53 percent. Trump’s net favorability rating of -30 (favorable minus unfavorable) trails Clinton’s -8 among adults overall; among registered voters, Trump’s net favorability is -24 compared with -12 for Clinton.” [WashPost]
Both candidates are still viewed unfavorably on average - The HuffPost Pollster aggregates for the candidates’ favorability ratings show both still deep underwater, although views of Clinton are slightly less negative than views of Trump. Clinton averages 54 percent unfavorable to 42 percent favorable, for a net -12 score. Trump’s unfavorables are around 58 percent, and his favorables only reach 37 percent for a net -21.
MOST THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE SUPPORTERS ARE SWAYABLE - Emily Swanson and Jonathan Lemire: “Most people who are drawn to third party candidates in the presidential election aren’t sold on their choice, making these voters wild cards in an already unpredictable contest.A shift in their support toward either of the major party nominees — away from Libertarian Gary Johnson, Jill Stein of the Green Party or another third party candidate — could drastically change the shape of the race. A recent Associated Press-GfK poll found that nearly 7 in 10 third-party supporters say they could still change their minds. They are about evenly split between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump if forced to choose between just those two. Nearly one-third refused to pick or said they would just not vote if it came down to that.” [AP]
OHIO MIGHT NOT VOTE FOR THE WINNER THIS NOVEMBER - Kyle Kondik: “For the first time since Ohio rejected Kennedy in favor of Richard M. Nixon in 1960, it seems quite possible that the Buckeye State will find itself on the losing side of a presidential election this year…. Uncertainty about Ohio comes in the midst of a competitive presidential race where Hillary Clinton is clearly reasserting herself…. If Donald Trump becomes president, Ohio will vote for him. If Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, she will be president. But if Hillary Clinton wins by just a small margin nationally, the state could easily back Trump in a loss. That’s because both history and demographics suggest Trump will perform better in Ohio than he does nationally, just like Nixon did in 1960…. Ohio’s electorate is going to be somewhere around 80% white in 2016. That’s significantly higher than the national average, which will be somewhere around 70% (I’m using rounded numbers for figures that are hard to precisely formulate and on which some experts disagree). The state’s lack of diversity compared to the nation is a seeming GOP advantage in Ohio given the differences in voting between white and nonwhite voters.” [Center for Politics]
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MONDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-A Fox News poll conducted after the debate finds Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 3 points. [Fox]
-Clinton has gained against Trump in Virginia. [13NewsNow]
-Forty-three percent of voters say Trump’s comments on Alicia Machado’s weight make them less likely to vote for him. [Politico]
-Paul Goren and Christopher Chapp explain why evangelical voters will vote for Trump. [WashPost]
-Michael McDonald checks in on early voting in key swing states. [HuffPost]
-Millennials are more likely than older voters to fact check what the candidates say. [Uproxx]
-An inside look into how CBS news conducts their polls. [CBS]
-A cartoon by Joe Liccar illustrates the choice between two disliked candidates. [AAEC]