It all started in mid-February of this year when Mullah Baradar, the second in command of the Afghan insurgency, was captured in a joint raid conducted by CIA and Pakistani forces in Karachi, Pakistan's biggest city where members of the Taliban's leadership council were reportedly hiding after being shifted from Quetta. Afterwards, local and international media outlets reported more captures of high command Taliban leaders and shadow governors in different parts of the country. The latest of the series was the apprehension of Mohtasim Agha Jan, former Taliban finance minister and son-in-law of Mullah Omar. With this, it is said that at least seven important members of the leadership council are now in Pakistan's detention.
The arrests have been described as a 'coup' against the Afghan Taliban in Pakistan. Although Afghan government and western officials had many times complained that the insurgent leaders were operating inside, and under protection of, Pakistan but Pakistani officials had always denied their presence. However, the sudden coup concurred with reports that UN and Afghan officials had met with the Taliban leaders and some kinds of reconciliation talks were underway. More questions arose when the United States immediately welcomed the arrests but the Afghan government chose to remain silent. Before the captures, Pakistan had expressed its irritation on direct contacts between the two parties and insisted on a central role for itself in the reconciliation efforts.
This led to a wider debate on media forums that whether Pakistan was now serious in acting against the Afghan Taliban or the arrests were just to disrupt the talks or the reconciliation process. Many Afghan and Pakistani experts interviewed by this scribe differ on this but majority of them agreed that for whatever reason Pakistan may have made the arrests, it is for sure that they will weaken the insurgency.
Afrasiab Khattak, provincial leader of the Awami National Party, believes that all of the captured Taliban leaders were important commanders and facilitators and their arrests will definitely weaken the movement. But, he thinks that the coup does not necessarily mean that the central government is serious against Afghan Taliban. 'Excessive international pressure bludgeoned Pakistan to show some commitment,' he said.
An Afghan analyst, Saifullah Ahmadzai, who works with a Kabul-based research institute, the Center for Conflict and Peace Studies (CAPS), agrees with the element of international pressure and that the insurgency will be affected by the arrests but he also sees a conspiracy element in the attempt. He told me that: 'Pakistan will never like to see a stable and united Afghanistan. The Afghan government developed a reconciliation plan in the London Conference and then announced a peace jirga that is going to be held in April. The Afghan Taliban had demonstrated willingness to come to talks; they even had participated in some meetings. As soon as the meetings were known, Pakistan arrested the leaders to block any peace and reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan.'
A senior Pakistani journalist Shamim Shahid, editor of daily The Nation, and an Afghan political analyst Waheedullah Ghazikhel, editor of weekly Kabul Post, also were on the opinion that Pakistan is still not serious in curbing the Afghan insurgents. They said that the arrests aimed to harm the reconciliation process.
On the contrary, two Pakistani journalists, Riffatullah Orakzai, who has been reporting the terrorism-affected N.W.F.P. and the tribal areas for BBC Urdu, and Rokhan Yousafzai, working for daily Express in Peshawar, said they think that Pakistan has now realized the need for eliminating terrorism and has changed its policies accordingly. 'I think Pakistan is now serious against terrorism and the top arrests prove this because if Pakistan was not serious, it would not have hit them on such a top level,' said Mr. Orakzai. Both Mr. Orakzai and Mr. Yousafzai claimed that the arrests were a serious blow for the insurgents.
One independent Afghan analyst, Dr. Zeerak Yousafi, even sees role of the United States behind the arrests of top Taliban leaders in Pakistan. He told me Online that: 'The U.S. does not want reconciliation in Afghanistan but the Afghan government had been making mechanisms for it. To turn these efforts into a failure, and to block the reconciliation, the U.S. forced Pakistan to arrest all of the Taliban leaders who wanted to reconcile with the Afghan government. Thus, Pakistan achieved two goals: disrupting the reconciliation process and showing its loyalty to the U.S. which will result in more aid and praise.' He also said that the arrests have to weaken the insurgency.
For now it is not clear whether Pakistan will hand over the captured Taliban leaders to Afghanistan, but General Kiyani, Pakistan's chief of army, recently visited Kabul to discuss joint anti-terror strategies and bilateral cooperation. The country's Supreme Court has ordered officials not to hand over them to any outside country, yet many of the analysts think that the arrested leaders may eventually end up in Afghan prisons and investigated by the U.S. intelligence agencies.