Fewer Than 18 Percent Of People Have Flown: What Happens Next?

Fewer Than 18 Percent Of People Have Flown: What Happens Next?
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As incomes rise with the global middle class growing from 25% today to 60% in 2030, the remaining 82% of the world that has yet to step foot on an airplane will start flying in big numbers. So big, the number of commercial airplanes is expected to double to around 44,000 in the next 20 years. More air travel means an increase in carbon dioxide emissions from airplanes. But does it have to? I don't think so.

Today I released a white paper with Dr. Alan Epstein from jet-engine maker Pratt & Whitney that details exciting new trends in green aviation technology that can allow the tremendous growth in air travel to happen more sustainably. With new international carbon dioxide regulations just adopted for airplanes, green aviation technologies must now lead the way.

The United Nations International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) just passed last week the first-ever carbon dioxide emissions reduction mandate for air travel. This is the COP21 Paris Climate Treaty equivalent for aviation. The new ICAO regulations:

  • Aspire for carbon neutral growth for international air travel after 2020. Beginning in 2021, participating countries must not exceed carbon dioxide emissions levels consistent with carbon neutral growth by adopting new fuel efficient technologies, utilizing lower net carbon fuels, and/or investing in certified carbon offsets.
  • Require that new airplanes certified after 2020 reduce carbon dioxide emissions substantially based on a metric accounting for aircraft size and weight.
  • How do we meet these new regulations? With technology:

    1. Bet on Gas Turbines

    The modern gas turbine engine is already the most fuel efficient device for air transportation. In fact, the worldwide commercial gas turbine fleet averages 15% lower carbon dioxide emissions than a future grid-charged electric propulsion system, which will optimistically require several inventions and many years to reach fruition. Even so, the industry could find 1.5 to 2 percent of its annual carbon emissions reductions from enhancements in gas turbine propulsion.

    Typically, equipment manufacturers have improved fuel efficiency and carbon reduction by 1 to 1.5 percent on an annual basis. Enhancing gas turbine technology can increase that by at least a half percent. That's a huge number! What's more, Pratt & Whitney just released its Geared Turbofan engine that reduces carbon emissions by 16%, particulate emissions by 50% and noise footprint by 75%.

    2. Enhance Design, Operations and Infrastructure

    Another 0.5 to 1 percent improvement in annual emissions could come from new efficiencies and enhancements to general operations and industry infrastructure, such as:

    • Application of different equipment to reduce wing drag
    • Lighter cabins through the use of lighter materials, enhanced airframe design and even small weight reductions like paperless manuals
    • Improved air route efficiency
    • Increased focus on sustainability at airports

    3. Integrate Lower Net Carbon Fuels

    Biofuels are increasingly being adopted by airlines. They have the potential to cut lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional jet fuel. Right now, it is a challenge to produce and distribute new energy sources like this on a large scale, but alternative fuels hold great promise. All together, these enhancements could recapture the entire 4-5% growth in emissions based on expected demand through 2050.

    Although I see the realities and challenges of climate change and sustainability every day, I am encouraged by the knowledge that we can make a difference in just a few short decades. It is certainly promising to see that we have the resources and technology in sight to meet the international regulations set by ICAO.

    Sustainability indeed works.

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