The potent smell of jet fuel overwhelmed the small cement hangar. The pilot remained strapped tight in his seat, sitting still in the dark all night, waiting for the countdown of his life. The bombing orders felt unexpectedly heavy, weighing down on top of his right thigh -- even though they were just a piece of paper. The ink was still drying on the freshly arrived orders, but he could have sworn that they had been there forever. Taso was used to sitting on top of thousands of pounds of explosives -- but never with that single piece of paper burning into his leg. There were several papers like that one spread all over Greece that fateful night of March 1987. They all pumped raw adrenaline straight to the pounding hearts of their recipients. Taso is my father and that day he was part of the first wave of fighter jets planned to defend Greece from Turkey's invasion of the Aegean.
Just a few hours earlier, the Turkish research vessel Sismik 1 had crossed the Marmara strait heading south. It was scheduled to sail all over the Aegean, right next to Greek islands, conducting hydrocarbon research with complete disregard to Greek sovereignty. The 1987 crisis is one of numerous crises instigated by Turkey the past four decades. Even though the incidents that brought the two countries on the verge of war can be counted on the fingers of one hand, the number of unknown daily provocations is dizzying.
For the past few years, Turkey has been exploiting the worst crisis in Greece's modern history by increasing its aggression in the Aegean Sea. According to the latest data of the Hellenic National Defense General Staff, the past five years alone more than 7000 aircrafts have been increasingly violating Greek sovereignty in the Aegean on a daily basis. These include close to a thousand armed formations, with Turkish jets carrying ammunition flying over the rooftops of Greek islands with thousands of residents. While Turkey shot down a Russian fighter for an alleged seven second air violation, its own jets intrude Greek airspace every day, for up to ten minutes. Greek reaction is swift, with a great deal of resources dedicated to fending off Turkish aggression.
Turkey's unwillingness to cooperate with the Greek authorities responsible for ensuring the safety of commercial aviation has been creating a volatile situation that many refuse to acknowledge. Many of the uncontrolled Turkish flights take place near civilian airports in the Eastern Aegean, inside areas of heavy commercial traffic. In 2016 there have been more than 500 instances of Turkish jets flying inside the Greek Flight Information Region without letting the Greek authorities know where they are headed. More than 100 of those flights crossed paths with commercial airplanes that were in the very delicate phase of landing. Given the enormous number of Greek airspace violations and infringements of Greece's FIR, what we have been witnessing is a fight against probabilities, as the Greek air traffic controllers have been trying to prevent the worst.
Turkey is currently experiencing some of the most tumultuous moments in its modern history. Two forms of authoritarianism, civilian and military, are currently vying for the future of Turkey. The most imminent outcome is a weakened military with rock bottom moral, at the worst time possible given the security threats at Turkey's flank. At the same time, a power gluttonous Erdogan is trying to squeeze every ounce of opportunity out of the failed coup, tightening his grip over Turkey's institutions even further.
Recent history has exposed Erdogan's megalomania with him instigating perilous crises for his personal benefit. From his toxic handling of the Kurdish issue, to the Russian jet incident, Erdogan's confrontational foreign policy has led Turkey down a very lonely road. His latest uncontrollable tantrums about US involvement and the extradition of his Pennsylvania based foe, Fethullah Gülen, has deepened the cleavage with the US, pulling Turkey further away from the West. His post-coup despotic tactics now even threaten its NATO membership. The pressure has been increasing dramatically.
A scenario where Erdogan figures out a way to export the domestic tensions for his own benefit is highly likely. Unfortunately, the Aegean fits the profile perfectly. The refugee crisis has brought NATO and the EU into the mix, making the Aegean a major humanitarian and security hotspot. All eyes have been on the Eastern Mediterranean migratory route and Erdogan has been exploiting it to the fullest. A crisis in what has become the soft underbelly of Europe will provide multiple gains for Erdogan. It will help boost the bruised moral of the military, improve its tainted image domestically and also provide him with an absolute boom in public support. Given the complexity of the situation and the multitude of high stake actors in the area, he would expect a short lived engagement in the Aegean, without many casualties, before a mediated agreement that would most likely favor Turkey. Greece, on the other hand, has very little hope in this scenario for a favorable outcome, given the immense area of the Aegean theater of operation and its defensive, reactive position.
Turkey has been maintaining the tensions in the Aegean as a long term investment for a time like this. It can now build upon the long history of -- baseless -- crises in order to support its illegitimate, unsubstantiated claims. The West has become desensitized to Turkey's aggression in the Aegean, to the point of legitimizing its arbitrary claims and even enabling it by justifying a double standard when it comes to airspace violations in the Aegean versus Turkish airspace violations by the Russians. This past favoritism has given Erdogan the impression that he can get away with anything, becoming even more reckless.
Erdogan has been proven to be quite eager to play with fire when he think it suits his personal interests. In this case, however, the potential Aegean flashpoint can escalate into a wider conflict in the region that would have incalculable cost to all parties. Erdogan can use any regional development, from the refugee crisis, to the gas developments in Cyprus and future hydrocarbon explorations in the Aegean, as the trigger. He has become a modern day Minotaur demanding sacrifices to maintain peace and he has no shortage of excuses for doing so.
These all are just the worst case scenario, but they are indicative of what is at stake and a reminder that Erdogan's predictability never fails to amaze. The future of the Aegean may very well determine the future of Greece. For this reason, I will be posting a series of short pieces called Aegean Diaries, that will aim at keeping track of the developments in the region and assessing their implications to the situation in the Aegean. You may follow this series, along with more information and analyses about the Eastern Mediterranean at hellenicleaders.com.
Nikolas Katsimpras is a Senior Fellow at the Hellenic American Leadership Council, lecturer at Columbia University's Master program on Negotiation and Conflict Resolution and a former officer of the Hellenic Navy. Twitter: @nkatsimpras