POLITICS

HUFFPOLLSTER: Swing State Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Ahead In Florida

Ohio and Pennsylvania look like closer races.

Hillary Clinton is leading against Donald Trump in the Sunshine State. About half of American voters want to prevent Trump from becoming president. And Latinas could make an impact in 2016. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, June 21, 2016.

CLINTON LEADS IN FLORIDA, CLOSER RACE IN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA - Quinnipiac University: "Democrat Hillary Clinton opens an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, the largest of the presidential swing states, and erases a small Trump lead to create a dead heat in Ohio, while Pennsylvania remains too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today….Trump's support among men in Florida drops from 49 - 36 percent May 10 to 45 - 41 percent today. Clinton's lead among women grows from 48 - 35 percent in May to 52 - 34 percent today. Republicans back Trump 82 - 8 percent, while Clinton leads 93 - 2 among Democrats and 44 - 35 percent among independent voters. White voters back Trump 51 - 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 72 - 15 percent." [Quinnipiac]  

Pollster average gives Clinton the edge in all three states - Although this early in the general election, battleground polling remains relatively scarce, older surveys mostly show a modest lead for the Democratic candidates. HuffPost Pollster's model, including both the new Quinnipiac polls and older data from this spring, gives Clinton about a 2-point edge in Florida, a 3-point edge in Ohio and a 4-point edge in Pennsylvania.

ABOUT HALF OF ALL VOTERS WANT TO PREVENT A TRUMP PRESIDENCY - Monmouth University: “Nearly half of all voters (49%) say it is very important to them to make sure Trump is not elected president, compared to 31% who say this is not at all important. Relatively fewer voters (41%) say it is very important to keep Clinton out of the White House compared to 35% who say this concern is not at all important to them. Among voters who are undecided or currently prefer a third party candidate, 48% say it is very important to them to prevent a Trump victory while just 32% say the same about Clinton. ‘About one in seven voters would like to cast their ballot for a third party candidate. The fear of either Clinton or Trump getting into the White House, though, may lead some to hold their noses and vote for the other major party nominee. And right now, a Trump victory appears to be the more troubling outcome for these voters,’ said [Monmouth University Poll Director Patrick] Murray.” [Monmouth]

MOST AMERICANS AREN'T HAPPY WITH EITHER MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATE - Jennifer Agiesta: “When asked whether they would be excited by a Trump or Clinton presidency, fewer than 3-in-10 muster that level of enthusiasm for either….About half (47%) say they would be hopeful if Clinton won, while 44% say so if Trump were to win. Neither presumptive nominee has wrapped up universal support within their own party. Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 51% say the party should nominate Trump, 48% would prefer someone else. On the Democratic side, 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners say they'd pick Clinton as their party's nominee, 43% say they would pick Democratic rival Bernie Sanders. That latter divide is about the same as the split between Obama and Clinton backers in late-June 2008, when 43% said that if Clinton were still running, they'd prefer her as the party's nominee.” [CNN]

HISPANIC WOMEN COULD MAKE AN IMPACT IN THE 2016 ELECTIONS - American Women, on a survey conducted by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner: "Latinas have an opportunity to be a key bloc in this year’s elections. In this survey, 59 percent of Latinas report voting in 2014; now, nearly 81 percent say they are 'almost certain' to vote in 2016. These women come to this election with very polarized feelings toward the political parties and candidates at the top of the ticket. Latinas express strong favorable feelings for the Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton alike, while white men and women view them negatively. At the same time, Latinas hold a negative view of the Republican Party generally, but reserve their harshest sentiments for the presumptive Republican nominee. An overwhelming 84 percent of Latinas view Trump negatively….Not surprisingly, strong majorities of Latinas favor policies that would not only allow undocumented immigrants to stay in the country and gain legal resident status, but also provide a path to citizenship."  [American Women]

QUESTION ORDER DOESN'T ALWAYS MATTER IN ONLINE SURVEYS - Jillesa Gebhardt: "A common type of question in telephone surveys (and in online surveys too) is called a part-whole question, where you ask a general question (How satisfied are you with your life right now?) as well as some more specific questions on the same topic (How satisfied are you with your job? How satisfied are you with your romantic relationships?). Previous research showed that the order in which you ask these types of questions on the phone probably affects the answers. This makes sense since you don’t know what questions are coming next, and you can’t change your answers to previous questions. But....In an online survey with all of the questions on the same page, the question order doesn’t matter because we scroll up and down, reading all of the questions before answering any of them. We also have the option of changing answers as we please. However, if you place questions on separate pages and don’t allow respondents to go back to previous pages the answering experience is more similar to phone, and question order matters again." [SurveyMonkey]

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TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Aaron Blake estimates that more young people voted for Bernie Sanders than for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton combined. [WashPost]

-Cameron Easley writes that security concerns as well as support for Trump have increased in the wake of the Orlando shooting. [MorningConsult]

-A survey from Colorado's health department shows no increase in teen marijuana use since the drug was legalized. [WashPost]

-A plurality of British voters think that the country will vote to remain in the E.U. [WashPost]

-Fewer Americans are struggling to afford healthcare. [Gallup]

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