The Past Two Week's Top Stories in International Affairs:
The Real Deal with IranThe 5+1 (UN Permanent Security Council Members plus Germany) were able to reach a draft agreement with Iran, wherein the majority of its enriched uranium will be exported to Russia to be converted into nuclear fuel (thus rendering unusable for nuclear weaponry). Iran says it will reaffirm its agreement after mulling it over for a few days. If Iran does go ahead with the plan, then all parties have a year to reach further agreement on overseeing Iran's nuclear program and laying out means and conditions to ensure the international community that Iran's nuclear program is uniquely civilian and not nuclear. The big news behind this story is that it was Russian intimations that further energy sanctions were afoot if Iran did not cooperate that prompted the Iranian change of heart and now that Russia is willing to become an active broker in the resolution of this crisis. The underlying questions are: Will Iran will really move forward with the deal? Likely, Tehran will seek to amend the deal in some way or delay. However, the parties led by the Obama administration are pushing very hard for Iran to keep to a rigorous time line with likely sanctions if Iran does not cooperate; Iran might dawdle at its peril. Will Israel's hawkish leadership be reassured by the deal and delay plans for a preemptive military strike on Iran? Some suggest that Iran has more secret facilities and thus enriched uranium (and plutonium for that matter), risks that are not being addressed in this deal. In which case, the year-long hiatus may represent a key delay for Iran to advance its nuclear weapon's program. And such risks might fuel Israeli concern and aggressive action. Though an immediate strike is highly unlikely at this point.
Action in WaziristanPakistan made its long-awaited offensive into Waziristan, a stronghold for the Mehsud Taliban militants. The result was a massive outpouring of refugees and terrorist reprisals across the country. In order to launch the offensive, Pakistan made deals with key Taliban and tribal leaders to guarantee safe transit and supply routes and to ensure that they will not join the fight in exchange for an easing of patrols and bombings in their areas of influence. Critics note that while this action is key for Pakistani security, it will do little to bolster the NATO effort in Afghanistan as the most lethal and dangerous of the Taliban militias operate in other areas of Pakistan -- these include the Quetta Shura Taliban in Quetta, the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan and the Hizb-i-Islami Gulbuddin in the nothern regions of FATA. Perhaps in response to the Pakistani offensive in North Waziristan, US Drone attacks were increased in North Waziristan. In other news, the US approved $7.5 billion in economic aid to Pakistan last week.
War Reports:AfghanistanThe international audit of election results disqualified a significant number of votes so as to necessitate a run-off between incumbent Hamid Karzai and his chief rival Abdullah Abdullah. The runoff will take place on 6 November. It is hoped that the runoff election will bring greater legitimacy to the victor (who is widely expected to be Karzai), after reports of widespread fraud, tampering and untoward activity by the UN election observers undermined the first round of election results. However, most of the systemic problems that plagued the first round of voting will not be remedied for the runoff. And many of the political issues -- poor governance, corruption, cronyism and nepotism -- facing Afghanistan remain regardless. That being said, little attention has been given to the massive level of suffrage and the risks ordinary Afghans took to vote in the first election. If they renew their efforts in the runoff, it is in the interest of all parties to legitimize the election and further empower the electoral process with reforms and better training of monitors afterwards rather than focusing on the election's shortcomings. Such condemnation of the state of Afghan democracy does nothing to improve governance or governmental legitimacy.Also, President Obama's new policy for Afghanistan will likely be delayed until the outcome of the Afghan elections. Pundits, members of the US military and even members of the administration have loudly expressed their opinions (and their exasperation at Obama's insistence to make a decision in due course). Recommendations range from supporting General McChrystal's request for a massive troop increase to advocating for a significant drawdown or withdrawal. Likely it seems that Obama, supported by Envoy Holbrooke and Secretary of State Clinton, will propose a middle of the road strategy with some troop increases and incremental measures of progress and milestones to be met.
Iraq, Progress DelayedIraq failed to pass an election law by October 15, a necessary milestone for its general election on 16 January. Descrepancies between voting for political party lists or individual candidates remained at issue, but the main challenge is how to properly ensure political representation in Kirkuk. Unrest in and around Kirkuk has plaqued Iraqi security for over a year now. What was once a procedurial problem -- the inability of the central government to complete census and electoral proceedings in the highly contested area as well to ennact an oil law -- is now giving way to a political and security one. If a political solution is not met, hostilities could increase fighting between Sunni Arabs and Kurds for control of the oil-rich region, which may flounder US pullout plans and growing political stability. This is not a problem that can be easily resolved: Sunni Arabs, a minority in Iraq, see Kirkuk as its only way to remain pertinent and influential with the Shia dominant central government (Shia's have oil reserves of their own in the south). Kurds see it as a way to ensure greater autonomy (and perhaps independence).
Analysis in Brief: Under the Radar
Turkey Making Peace and Enemies?Turkey seems to be relishing its new prominence as the predominant democracy with a Muslim population in the region. Its recent efforts to make peace with those it has had longstanding grievances point to its desire to be a broker of peace and a leader in the region: it recently reestablished ties with Armenia; it is seeking reconciliation with its Kurdish minority; and it has made diplomatic and military agreements with Syria, even suggesting that peace between Syria and Israel can only go through Ankara. However, as much as Turkey's peaceful premise pleases most of the world, Israel should be concerned that Ankara may be seeking to distance itself from Tel Aviv, a long term regional military and diplomatic ally.
US-Japan Relations on the Fritz?US President Obama is scheduled to travel to its longterm ally Japan at the beginning of November. US Secretary of Defense Gates traveled to Tokyo this week to discuss some brewing issues with the newly elected Democratic Party of Japan government ahead of Obama's visit. The top issues of contension are: first, Japan's announcement that it will not renew its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, vital to the US-NATO effort in Afghanistan; second, Japan's suggestion that it wishes to renegoiate the terms for US forces in Japan, some politicians even suggesting the eliminatation of the presence of a US base on Okinawa; third, will be how to resume six party talks with North Korea over its nuclear program.
China in Pakistan and AfricaChina's insatiable and amoral quest for energy and influence continues with a $7 billion deal with ruling military junta in Guinea and with $5.5 billion deal to develop energy resources with Russia (this adds to the $100 billion of energy deals already struck in 2009 with Russia along).
War on DrugsUS officials launched a massive crackdown in the US aimed at curbing the distribution network of one of Mexico's deadliest drug cartels La Familia Michoacana. The federal police conducted raids in 19 states and 49 cities and arrested over 300 people.Sudanese Double StandardIn a newly issued US policy on Sudan, US President Obama harshly criticized Khartoum for its management of the conflict in Darfur and even said the US would support the indictment of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court at The Hague. At the same time, it said is would engage Khartoum with incentives for cooperation on issues such as counter-terrorism.
Nigerian Prospects for PeaceA successful amnesty campaign for militants and an initiative to share oil wealth with local communities has set the Nigerian Delta on a new course for stability and peace. The Nigerian government must follow through on the execution of the program, which promises stipends and retraining to former militants. And rebels must respect their engagements as well. If successful, it will also increase foreign investment in the country.
Official SpeculationsThe rumor mill churned this week after two notable attacks. The first in Iran after a suicide attack killed 40 in the south-east Iranian town of Pasheen, near the Pakistani border. The Sunni rebel group Jundallah claimed responsability and Iran said that the UK, US and Pakistan were all involved in the attack (which all three parties denied). The second concerns mysterious blasts in southern Lebanon. Three suspected Israeli wiretapping devices were destroyed in southern Lebanon, following the destruction of two of Hezbollah's arms caches. Both Israeli and Lebanese officials have remained quiet on the events but speculations are rife on whether these explosion suggest a new Israeli tactic to disrupt Hezbollah's armament and telecommunications systems or whether it is part and parcel of an ongoing counter-intelligence action by the Lebanese government to break Israeli spy operations in the country.