Gary Sanchez and Michael Fulmer represent the American League’s top rookies.
Gary Sanchez: .299/.376/.657, 53 G, 20 HR, 1.032 OPS, 3.0 WAR
Michael Fulmer: 11-7, 159.0 IP, 132 K’s, 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.9 WAR
(Before we delve in, I must let the Cleveland Indians fans know that while Tyler Naquin had a sensational rookie season, I truly don’t see a chance for him to win ROY this season.)
It is fair to say that the 2016 American Rookie of the Year voting will be some of the most interesting the baseball world has ever seen. A match between the young Detroit Tiger acquired in the deal that sent All-Star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the New York Mets and the backstop from the New York Yankees, who could be the face of the Baby Bombers.
IN THE RED CORNER we have Michael Fulmer, who ranked fourth in the American League in ERA (3.06) among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched, while also having the highest WAR (wins above replacement) among rookies in the American League.
IN THE BLUE CORNER we have Gary Sanchez, who if you averaged his career stats over a 162 game season would have 59 HR, 124 RBI, and an absurd 1.023 OPS (on-base + slugging percentages). Through only 53 games, Sanchez proved to be more valuable than any other American League Rookie position player with his 3.0 WAR besting the rest.
What can past Rookie of Year voting tell us about who will win this match? Well … not a lot.
Since 2012, when Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera squared off in the American League MVP voting, selecting MVP’s, Cy Youngs, and ROY’s has been increasingly influenced and revolutionized by WAR.
In these years in which WAR has defined voting, we really don’t have any examples in which we have seen one player who has played historically for a short period of time versus a player who has played at an elite level over a longer period of time. The closest example we have in ROY voting in this time frame is when former Tampa Bay Rays’ outfielder Wil Myers topped his teammate Chris Archer. However, the statistical differences between these two were far less pronounced than those of Sanchez and Fulmer today. Archer started one fewer game than Fulmer did this year and finished his rookie season with a 2.2 WAR, while Myers played 35 (88 total) more games than Sanchez and finished with a 1.9 WAR. Obviously a 0.3 difference between Myers and Archer, is far more negligible than the 1.9 difference between Fulmer and Sanchez.
While there is really no good historical comparison for the 2016 ROY race, Cabrera’s defeat of Trout in the 2012 MVP, may provide insight into who voters will choose. To the horror of many sabermetricians, Cabrera with a 7.2 WAR topped Trout’s historic 10.8 WAR.
Why did this happen?
Quite simply, giving it to Cabrera was much more compelling. Yes, it was amazing that Trout as a rookie was able to achieve such a historically high WAR, however his Los Angeles Angels did not make the 2012 postseason. Yet, Cabrera won the first Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski claimed it in 1967. Additionally, not all voters were completely sold on the supremacy of WAR as a statistic, subsequently, Cabrera received 22 first place votes for MVP, while Trout received only 6.
What does this tell us about voting for the 2016 ROY voting?
There is precedent for voters choosing a player with a inferior season with a better story for MLB’s most prestigious award. Additionally, with Cabrera receiving an overwhelming majority of first place MVP votes, we can see many voters do not value WAR in the way that many hardcore baseball fans, general managers, and sabermetricians do.
Thus I will conclude that Sanchez, with his unfathomable 20 bombs in a mere 53 games, will capture the hearts and minds of the voters and take home the award. It’ll be close undoubtedly, due to the fact that voters will not only have to overcome the WAR discrepancy, but also because there is very little precedent for the ROY being awarded to a position player with so few games played (Hall of Famer Willie McCovey won the Rookie of the Year honor after playing only 52 games).
In the end, Sanchez has the sexier story which gives him the slight edge over Fulmer.
Who do you think should win and why? The comments section is right below.
*The WAR statistics cited in this article all came from baseball-reference.com