Today, former Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA) announced that he will not run for the Senate next year. The decision dramatically increases the chances that Democrats will hold that newly-acquired seat since no other potential GOP candidate was anywhere close to Ridge's stature.
I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.
But Ridge was just the latest in a string of prominent Republican recruits to decline runs for the Senate and House next year.
Yesterday, it was reported that Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) has declined a bid for President Obama's old Senate seat (currently held by Sen. Roland Burris). Like Ridge, Kirk was clearly the GOP's best candidate in the state. Now, it seems highly unlikely that the GOP will wrest control of the seat away from the Democratic nominee (which is unlikely to be Burris).
Earlier this week, two other top Republicans opted against House bids against vulnerable freshmen Democrats.
First, Florida GOP chair Jim Greer (R) declined to take on freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL) in Florida's 24th Congressional District. Then, former Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) declined a rematch against freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D-VA). Both were huge losses for the NRCC which hoped to narrow the Democrats 79-seat majority.
Be further mindful that top GOP recruits to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) have already declined to run, as did former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) for the open Republican-held Senate seat in Florida (though some GOPers are hopeful that Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will run for the seat, but that is far from certain.).
What's noteworthy about these decisions is that each of these candidates could have won their respect races. But what is clearly outweighing the prospects of simply winning is that of having to serve in an ever-shrinking minority party with little power.
As candidly acknowledged by potential House candidate Bill Konopnicki (R-AZ):
Konopnicki said he isn't interested in serving in Congress unless Republicans take back the majority in the 2010 elections - something that will be difficult to predict in time to mount a serious campaign.
"I'm not interested, quite honestly, in going and being the minority party," he said.
This is a real problem for Republicans and likely to further diminish their numbers in the Senate and House even more as a result of poor recruiting, creating quite the Catch-22 for the GOP in 2012 and beyond.
A very, very ugly dynamic for the GOP indeed.
Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "GOP's Shrinking Minority Status Causing Top Recruits To Decline Runs?"