John McCain's odds of winning the presidency have plummeted in the past week. Just this morning, in fact, they hit a new low on Intrade: 36%.
In part, this plunge is of McCain's own making: The hamfisted charge to Washington, flip-flopping on the debate, and Bailout debacle have really hurt. Then there's the stock market: impoverished voters want change. And, as Paul Krugman notes, in part McCain's nosedive is the result of a critical decision by Bush Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson earlier this month: to let Lehman Brothers fail.
Two weeks ago, on September 14th, Paulson let Lehman croak--and the credit markets went haywire. In short order, this led to the failure of AIG, WaMu, Wachovia, and the chaos of the emergency Wall Street Bailout.
September 15, probably not coincidentally, was the day on which John McCain's odds of winning peaked. (See chart here)
See Also: McCain's Odds Plummet With Stock Market