Connecticut Democrats will go to the polls on Tuesday and the choicewill be a defining moment for both the Democratic Party and the nation.While I will stop short of a precise prediction, let me suggest thatpolling evidence shows that Senator Joseph Lieberman will lose theSenate primary to businessman Ned Lamont by a substantial margin. Enoughof a margin, in fact, to convince his Senate colleagues and friends thathe should forego a promised independent run and bow out gracefully. Wealready see good friends like New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg suggestingthat Lieberman will have to drop out and the pressure will build.
At the same time, we have seen Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton begin theprocess of pulling away from her aggressive pro-war stance in last week'scompelling confrontation with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.Referring to the Bush administration's policy in Iraq as a "failure" wasa big change for Hillary who has been booed in recent months by fellowDemocrats for her support for the President.
I have stated on The Huffington Post several times that the Democratswill have a tough time convincing that they are ready to take backcontrol of Congress without offering any clarity on the Iraq War.Lieberman has been patently clear on Iraq but way out of the mainstreamof his party's own voters. Clinton as well runs the risk of having herlandslide victory in New York tainted by a below-expectations showingbecause New York liberal Democrats want her to be against the war.
Let's just look at the numbers from my most recent national poll (July21). Overall, only 36% of likely voters told us that they agree that thewar in Iraq has been "worth the loss of American lives", while 57%disagree. But the partisan splits are more revealing: only 16% of theDemocrats polled said the war has been worth while 82% disagree and only26% of Independents agree the war has been worth it while 72% disagree.On the Republican side, 64% said the war has been worth it, while 23%disagree. The war has been the principal cause of the nation'spolarization in the past three years. The polling evidence shows thedegree to which Iraq has become a Republican war. And these latestnumbers are also noteworthy in that they show that about one in fourRepublicans have now pretty much given up on the war.
All of which is to suggest that Democratic candidates will now probablybe emboldened to take a stronger stance against the war. If principledoesn't win the day, at least the polling numbers are pretty clear whattheir base wants. Indeed, the polling numbers were pretty clear whatDemocrats and Independents wanted in 2004 - and the fact that they didn'treceive the opposition to the war they were looking for from theirstandard-bearers is the main reason that they lost both the Presidencyand did not pick up seats in either house of Congress.
Meanwhile, look for Ned Lamont, who is running a strong antiwar campaign,to be the new face of the Democrats in 2006 and perhaps beyond. And lookfor Democratic voters to push harder for even more clarity on whereDemocrats stand. Lieberman will be gone and Clinton will be distancingherself from her previous stand. But calling an obvious failure a failurewill not be enough. The next step in offering voters some clarity on Iraqwill be to develop an exit strategy.
That is what leadership is all about and Democrats, fresh from sendingthe pro-war Lieberman a clear message, will be looking very closely.