Days before the third and final presidential debate, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in most key battleground states, according to new polls released Monday.
Ohio and North Carolina are close, Florida and Nevada are trending toward Clinton, and Colorado and Pennsylvania are looking pretty safe for the Democratic presidential ticket. Clinton and Trump debate on Wednesday, giving voters a last chance to see them on the same stage before the Nov. 8 election.
Ohio
Ohio polls have leaned toward Clinton in recent weeks, but a new CNN/ORC poll shows Trump has the edge. In a four-way race, Trump leads Clinton, 48 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters. The poll shows Libertarian Gary Johnson with 4 percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 2 percent.
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Clinton and Trump tied among likely voters ― each taking 45 percent ― while Johnson wins 6 percent and Stein picks up 1 percent. Only about 2 points separate Clinton and Trump in the HuffPost Pollster aggregate of Ohio’s polls, and the presidential forecast gives the state narrowly to Clinton.
In the Ohio Senate race, incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) holds a 16-point lead over former Gov. Ted Strickland (D), 56 percent to 40 percent, according to CNN’s poll.
North Carolina
A new CNN/ORC poll of likely voters finds Clinton narrowly leading Trump 48 percent to 47 percent in a three-way race with Johnson. According to HuffPost Pollster’s aggregation, Clinton leads Trump by less than 2 points in the state, which voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012.
North Carolina’s Senate and gubernatorial races are equally close in the CNN/ORC poll. In the Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr leads Democratic challenger Deborah Ross 48 percent to 47 percent, while incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory (R) trails Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) 48 percent to 49 percent, in the race for governor.
North Carolina is still considered a battleground state in the presidential forecast model, but Clinton is slightly favored to win the state’s 15 electoral votes. The HuffPost Election forecast model also gives Burr about an 80 percent chance of keeping his seat.
Florida
In a four-way race, Clinton leads Trump 48 percent to 44 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released Monday. Four percent of Florida likely voters preferred Johnson, and 1 percent picked Stein.
Clinton has led Trump in nearly every Florida poll since mid-September, and has more than a 90 percent chance of winning the Sunshine State, according to HuffPost’s election forecast model.
Nevada
Recent polls show Clinton with a 1.6-point lead over Trump in the state, according to HuffPost Pollster. In CNN’s latest poll, The Clinton-Kaine ticket led Trump-Pence 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. The Johnson-Weld ticket takes 7 percent, according to the poll.
HuffPost Pollster’s aggregate shows less than 1 point separating the Nevada Senate candidates. But the new CNN/ORC poll gives Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto a surprising 7-point lead (52 percent to 45 percent) over Republican Joe Heck.
HuffPost predicts Clinton will win Nevada. The Senate forecast indicates the Nevada seat is a tossup.
Colorado
Clinton leads Trump by 8 points in the state, the new Quinnipiac poll finds. Among likely Colorado voters, Trump receives 37 percent, to Clinton’s 45 percent. Johnson snags 10 percent, and Stein takes 3 percent.
According to HuffPost Pollster’s aggregate, Clinton leads Trump by nearly 5 points in Colorado and has about a 98 percent chance of winning the state.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania continues to slip further from Trump’s grasp. Clinton has about a 98 percent chance of winning the state, and a new Quinnipiac poll backs that up. Likely Pennsylvania voters preferred Clinton-Kaine over Trump-Pence by a 47 percent to 41 percent margin. Johnson secured 6 percent and Stein took 1 percent.
Clarification: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Strickland was polling at 44 percent in Ohio. He is polling at 40 percent.
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