By, Jacob Smith
The history of presidential elections is, at times, polarizing and unpredictable and this year's election seems to top them all, but a professor at American University, Allan Lichtman, says that history has already revealed a winner.
Lichtman says he doesn't have to wait till November 8th to predict the election outcome because his system, based on a study of every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, has accurately predicted the past eight cycles and is prepared to reveal the next POTUS.
"I came up with 13 key factors that decide elections that focus on the performance and strength of the incumbent party," said Lichtman. "The decision rule is if six or more of those keys go against the party holding the White House, they are predicted losers."
Lichtman says that there are currently six keys turned against the democrats, just enough to narrowly predict Donald Trump as the next president.
Though the keys are close, the system has yet to fail Lichtman since Ronald Reagan was re-elected in 1984.
According to Lichtman, the six keys against the democrats include their losses in the midterm election, the fact that this is an open seat election without an incumbent running, the polling numbers for Gary Johnson, no major policy change, no big foreign policy triumph, and the fact that Hillary Clinton is not a charismatic candidate like John F. Kennedy.
Even though the keys are not currently in Clinton's favor, Lichtman argues that this prediction may not be as simple as past elections.
"Two of those keys could potentially turn," said Lichtman. "Gary Johnson could fade away and it's conceivable that America, and its allies, could drive ISIS out of Iraq and sell that to the public."
"On the other side, a key that could turn against the democrats is social unrest. Right now, social unrest is pretty sporadic but if it became systematic like in the 1960's, it could flip that key," said Lichtman.
Lichtman also argues that Donald Trump is a different candidate than he has ever encountered in his research, therefore possibly resulting in a different outcome than his system has ever predicted.
"We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump and he could shatter historical patterns and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," said Lichtman.