The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of housing price and rent trends nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and show what's really happening to asking prices and rents. Asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months. As a result, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here's the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.
Asking Prices Accelerated in November, Rising 7.4 percent Year-over-Year
|November 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary|
|% change in asking prices||# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases||% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures|
|Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted||1.5%||N/A||1.6%|
|Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted||3.4%||95||3.5%|
|Data from previous months are revised each month, so current data reported for previous months might differ from previously reported data.|
Prices Rising Fast in Florida, Slowest in Favorite Millennial Markets
|Where Prices Increased Most in November|
|#||U.S. Metro||Y-o-Y % asking price change, Nov 2014||% of population age 20-34 (Millennials)||% of population age 50-69 (Boomers)|
|1||Ventura County, CA||17.2%||20%||24%|
|2||Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL||15.2%||16%||30%|
|3||North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL||14.7%||14%||30%|
|6||Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL||13.3%||16%||29%|
|7||Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL||13.0%||18%||25%|
|8||Las Vegas, NV||12.9%||22%||23%|
|Note: among 100 largest metros. Population shares based on 2013 Census population estimates. To download the list of asking home price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF|
To see how the age distribution of a metro's population relates to home prices, we identified the 10 markets with the highest shares of each of four distinct generations: millennials (age 20-34); Gen X (age 35-49); boomers (age 50-69); and seniors (age 70 and up). (See note.) In the 10 markets where millennials account for the largest share of the population, including Austin, San Diego and Virginia Beach-Norfolk, the average year-over-year price increase was 6.1 percent -- below the 7.4 percent national increase. Markets with the highest shares of Gen Xers, including Raleigh, San Francisco and San Jose, averaged price increases of 9.4 percent -- highest among the four age groups. Prices in the favorite markets of seniors, most of which are in Florida, rose 8.6 percent -- also above the national increase.
The Millennial Mismatch in Housing Affordability
When young adult renters are asked if they will buy a home someday, a whopping 93 percent say yes. You'd think it would be good news for them that prices are rising more slowly in the markets where they currently live. Not so fast though. Prices might be rising more slowly in millennials' favorite metros. But affordability is nonetheless a big challenge in those markets.
To see this, compare the millennial population share in each metro with the percentage of homes for sale that a typical millennial household can afford (from our most recent Middle Class Affordability report -- see note below on how we define affordability). In metros with higher millennial shares, homeownership tends to be less affordable for this group. For instance, in Austin, Honolulu, New York and San Diego, 20-34 year-olds account for at least 23.5 percent of the population, putting those metros in the top 10 for millennial share. But fewer than 30 percent of homes for sale in those markets are within reach of the typical millennial household. Some markets with a high millennial share are more affordable, including Oklahoma City and Baton Rouge, but they're the exception (see note).
Call it the "millennial mismatch." Millennials can afford markets where they don't live, but they can't afford many of the markets where they do live. Many millennials who hope to buy someday will be priced out of the market where they live now. They'll face a tough choice: Do they keep renting or move to a cheaper market?
Rents Gains Easing Slightly in Most Large Markets
|Rent Trends in the 25 Largest Rental Markets|
|#||U.S. Metro||Y-o-Y % change in rents, Nov 2014||Y-o-Y % change in rents, Aug 2014||Median rent for 2-bedroom, Nov 2014|
|2||San Francisco, CA||12.2%||13.4%||3600|
|6||New York, NY-NJ||8.3%||5.4%||3400|
|10||Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL||7.4%||5.5%||1150|
|12||Los Angeles, CA||7.3%||8.2%||2500|
|14||Orange County, CA||7.3%||4.7%||2100|
|15||St. Louis, MO-IL||7.3%||6.3%||950|
|16||Las Vegas, NV||6.5%||5.4%||950|
|18||Riverside-San Bernardino, CA||5.8%||6.1%||1550|
|22||San Diego, CA||4.0%||6.5%||2000|
|25||Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI||1.8%||1.7%||1300|
|Note: among 100 largest metros. Population shares based on 2013 Census population estimates. To download the list of rent price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF|
The correlation for the data shown in the scatterplot between millennial share and homeownership affordability for millennials is -0.28 (-0.48 when weighted by metro number of households), which is statistically significant at the 5 percent level.
We measure affordability as the share of homes for sale on Trulia within reach of the typical millennial household. Our standard is whether the total monthly payment, including mortgage, insurance and property taxes, is less than 31 percent of the metro area's median income for households headed by millennials. The total monthly cost includes the mortgage payment assuming a 4.2 percent 30-year fixed rate mortgage with 20 percent down, property taxes based on average metro property tax rate and insurance. We chose 31 percent of income as the affordability cutoff to be consistent with government guidelines for affordability.
The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal underlying price trends. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes. Historical data are revised monthly. Thus, historical data presented in the current release are the best comparison with current data. Our FAQs provide the technical details.