HUFFPOLLSTER: How Donald Trump Became The Republican Nominee

Most Republicans changed their minds about which candidate to support at least once in the primary season.

Donald Trump took a long, “winding” path to the nomination. The views of Trump’s core supporters still differ from the rest of the GOP. And people on both sides of the U.S.-Mexican border are united in their opposition to building a wall. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, July 19, 2016.

MOST REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS CHANGED THEIR MIND AT LEAST ONCE - Pew Research Center: “From March 2015 to April 2016, nearly all Republican voters changed their minds at least once about who they were supporting for the GOP nomination.

This volatility was not confined to the early stages of the GOP nomination contest. A 61% majority of GOP voters changed their minds at least once across the three surveys conducted from December 2015 to April 2016, as key primary contests were unfolding. A quarter of Republicans changed their minds twice in this period. Only 34% of Republican voters supported the same candidate at all three points, including 23% who consistently backed Trump over this period – which is by far the largest share ‘sticking’ with a candidate.” [Pew]

Some voters who didn’t back Trump in the primaries remain skeptical - More from Pew: “By the April survey… Trump was supported by 44% of GOP voters: 23% had consistently supported him since December, while 21% had not… 44% had not named Trump as their first choice in any of the three surveys (December, March or April)...An additional 12% of GOP voters had named Trump their preferred nominee in either December or March, but then did not support him in April. Overwhelming majorities of Republican voters in each of these groups now prefer Trump to Clinton in a general election matchup. However, the intensity of that support varies. Nearly all of those who were loyal supporters of Trump since December (98%) say they will vote for him against Clinton – and 91% are certain they will do so. By contrast, a smaller share of voters who did not support Trump in any of these three surveys back him in the general election: 79% do so, and only 53% of those in this group say they are “certain” they will vote for Trump over Clinton.” [Pew]

NOT ALL REPUBLICANS AGREE WITH TRUMP’S PROPOSALS - Dina Smeltz and Craig Kafura: “A new survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, conducted June 10-27, 2016, found that a large majority of Republicans are now getting behind the GOP nominee. At the same time, there are some clear contrasts between the core supporters of Donald Trump and those who wanted another candidate to win the party’s nomination….Mr. Trump’s core supporters are more likely to believe that limiting the flow of refugees and migrants is effective at countering terrorism...Almost nine in ten (86%) say that immigrants and refugees coming into the US are a critical threat, compared to 56 percent of those Republicans who supported a non-Trump candidate…. core Trump supporters’ emphatic views on immigration, trade, and security alliances may run counter to the party faithful’s expectations for GOP leadership.” [Chicago Council]

PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER DON’T LIKE THE IDEA OF A BORDER WALL - Mollie Reilly: “Seventy-two percent of people on the U.S. side of the border and 86 percent along the Mexican side don’t support Donald Trump’s plan to build the barrier, according to a Cronkite News/Univision News/Dallas Morning News survey of people living in 14 U.S. and Mexican cities between California and Texas. A majority of respondents ― 59 percent of those in the U.S. and 69 percent of those living in Mexico ― said the presumptive Republican nominee’s rhetoric is hurting the region surrounding the border….There are a few caveats to keep in mind while looking at the results of the new survey, The Washington Post notes: ‘It interviewed people in seven pairs of U.S.-Mexican ‘sister cities,’ and cities in the United States tend to be more liberal-leaning than rural areas... Most of the cities also have overwhelmingly Hispanic populations — for instance, Nogales, Ariz., is 95 percent Hispanic.’” [HuffPost]

AMERICANS ARE DIVIDED BY RACE ON HOW RACE AFFECTS LIFE - Shiva Maniam: “Black and white Americans have profoundly different views on racial equality, and a new survey finds they also differ on the extent to which a person’s race can be a burden or a benefit. For blacks, the answer is clear: 65% say ‘it is a lot more difficult to be black in this country than it is to be white.’ Fewer than half as many whites (27%) agree. The racial gap in perceptions of white advantages is even starker: 62% of blacks say ‘white people benefit a great deal from advantages in society that black people do not have.’ Just 13% of whites say whites have benefited a great deal from advantages that blacks lack….The differences in attitudes on racial advantage are partisan as well as racial and ethnic. In the new survey, registered voters who support Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump diverge substantially in their views of the difficulties blacks face and the advantages that whites possess. Nearly six-in-ten registered voters (57%) who support Clinton say it is a lot more difficult to be black than white...Among Trump supporters just 11% think it is a lot more difficult to be black than white.” [Pew]

AMERICANS WEIGH IN ON POLICE RESPONSES TO PROTESTS - Christian Davenport, David Armstrong and Thomas Zeitzoff: “Social science does not offer much research about what the public thinks are appropriate, reasonable, just and right responses by police and protesters to each other’s tactics. So we looked into it...last October we contracted with Qualtrics to collect data on a nationally representative sample of 1,200 respondents, including an oversample of African Americans numbering 600….In a series of paired comparisons (of 21 police actions and 24 protester actions), we asked respondents: Which action is more intense/severe: for the police to [insert random police action here] or for protestors to [insert random protester action here]?...We used this information to understand what people would call ‘proportional’ response — where the action is roughly believed to be comparably severe — as opposed to ‘disproportional’ response — where one side’s action is roughly believed to be far more (or less) severe than the other’s….The figure below shows which protester actions are considered proportional to which police actions, arrayed in increasing order of severity. To find out what is or is not considered proportional, identify a specific protester tactic (like taking hostages, which is third from the top) and then move along the row to identify whether the tactics on the bottom of the figure are seen as proportional or disproportional.The light gray band (running from the lower-left to upper-right corners of the figure) identifies ranges of proportionality.” [WashPost]

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TUESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-The latest national NBC/SurveyMonkey poll finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump effectively tied. [NBC]

-Lee Miringoff writes that the conventions bring no guarantee of significant or lasting bounces for the candidates. [Marist]

-Hillary Clinton is likely to be the least popular keynote speaker at her own convention. [WashPost]

-Pew Research analyzes how the presidential candidates are campaigning online. [Pew]

-Dara Lind runs through the numbers on why Americans are likely safer than they were eight years ago. [Vox]

-Keith Gaddie and Kirby Goidel point out that Americans think the country is on the wrong track most of the time. [HuffPost]

Tuesday’s Trivia:

Which Republican and Democratic candidates hailed from the same county in the same state?