POLITICS

HUFFPOLLSTER: Surveys Show Fading Support For Donald Trump

Donald Trump's support among Republicans is starting to fade, but outsider candidates remain strong. Anger defines the 2016 Electorate. And yet another mass shooting is unlikely to galvanize public opinion. This is HuffPollster for Friday, October 2, 2015

TRUMP'S GOP SUPPORT AND RATINGS FADE - Kathy Frankovic: "Although businessman Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP field when it comes to presidential preference of those registered voters who think of themselves as Republican, he is by no means the best-liked contender for Republicans for those potential voters. At least five other candidates in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll are seen more favorably by Republicans than Trump. Trump’s lead has somewhat diminished in recent weeks, though he remains in first place when second choice mentions are added to first choice preferences....Not only has his support dropped, but in the last two weeks Trump’s favorable ratings have declined 12 points among Republicans while unfavorable ratings have jumped 13 points." [YouGov]

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Consistent with other polls - YouGov, which shows Trump's support falling from 36 to 25 percent during September, is not alone in tracking the decline.  The HuffPost Pollster chart, based on all of the publicly released national poll on the Republican nomination, indicates a similar decline, from a peak of just over 31 percent on September 7 to just over 25 percent as of this writing.  While Trump's numbers have declined, support has increased for Carly Fiorina (now over 10 percent) and  Marco Rubio (9 percent). [Pollster Chart]

Other polls also show favorable rating drop - Harry Enten: "Trump’s net favorability rating (the share of Republicans who have a favorable view of him minus the share who have an unfavorable view) sits at +13 percentage points, according to the most recent live-interview polls. That’s the lowest it’s been since the beginning of August. A low net favorability rating lowers the ceiling on Trump’s support. Indeed, in three of the four live-interview polls that asked voters about their second choice since the debate (CNN, Fox News, NBC/Wall Street Journal and Suffolk University), Trump trails Ben Carson when you combine Republican voters’ first and second choices." [538]

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Trump in one word - The USA Today/Suffolk University poll asked 1000 adults  to describe Trump in one word. The most frequent response, USA Today reports, was "idiot" or "jerk." [USA Today via @sahilkapur]

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'No-prior-experience' candidates still lead - Daily Kos blogger Daniel Donner: "With Donald Trump no longer rising in the Republican presidential primary (but still in first place), GOP leaders may be tempted to breathe a sigh of relief and relax a little bit. But that probably wouldn't be a good idea...Trump's numbers may have waned a bit, but Fiorina and Carson appear to have picked up those erstwhile Trump backers. Support for these three candidates, collectively, has been growing steadily for the last five months or so and now extends to more than half the GOP voters." [DailyKos]

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'ANGER DEFINES 2016 ELECTORATE' - Mark Murray: "One word seems to define the American public's mood more than 13 months until Election Day 2016 — anger. According to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 62 percent of respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction — the 59th-straight NBC/WSJ poll over the past six years when a majority thinks things are on the wrong track. A plurality of adults feel angry because the American political system seems to be working for those with money and power. And more than half of Americans — 55 percent — say that something upsets them enough that they'd carry a protest sign for an entire day if they could....The top responses from Republicans on the protest sign they'd carry: 'Stop Abortion'; 'Enforce Immigration Laws'; 'Defund Planned Parenthood'; 'Impeach Obama.'" [NBC News]

CAN THE OREGON SHOOTING GALVANIZE SUPPORT FOR NEW GUN LAWS? - HuffPollster, written after the on-air Roanoke shooting, but already depressingly relevant again: "In the aftermath of a high-profile shooting, three things tend to happen: A crop of newly bereaved advocates renew the call for gun control legislation; support for such laws spikes briefly, if at all; and little change is actually effected….that increase in support after the Newtown, Connecticut, massacre, proceeded to ebb away without bringing substantive changes in policy. Other recent shootings haven't produced any notable change in opinion at all….Part of the difficulty for gun control advocates is that the debate falls increasingly along intractable partisan lines….Another long-standing problem for gun control advocates is that intensity tends to favor the other side. Staunch gun rights supporters may make up a small part of the electorate, but they're a powerful, easily mobilized voting bloc, with National Rifle Association backers ready to give an earful to politicians who propose new firearms laws. Greater gun control, on the other hand, tends to end up near the bottom of the list of issues that voters care about." [HuffPost]

THIS WEEK'S POLLS

-Ben Carson's popularity soars in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll. [WashPost]

-Fox News finds Hillary Clinton's ratings continuing to decline. [Fox]

-Most Americans don't want to see the government shut down. [Quinnipiac]

-Pew Research finds Americans with mixed feeling on the refugee crisis. [Pew]

-Americans are more inclined to like Planned Parenthood than they are to like politicians. [HuffPost]

-Americans, regardless of party, are united in opposition to the Citizens United decision. [HuffPost, Bloomberg]

-Most Americans support the option of end of life counseling (or "death panels"). [HuffPost, Kaiser]

-A GOP survey finds that many Republicans believe that humans play at least a small role in climate change. [NYT]

-Fewer Americans believe that the government should promote "traditional values." [Gallup]

-Kathy Frankovic questions whether the Pope's popularity is enough to affect American policy. [YouGov]

-South Carolina residents are loath to admit they ever supported flying the Confederate flag outside their statehouse. [HuffPost]

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THIS WEEK'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-John Sides shows how Trumps decline in the polls tracks with decreased media coverage. [WashPost]

-Andrew Prokop considers why "the party" may not stop Trump. [Vox]

-Seth Masket reminds Prokop that "it's really early." [Pacific Standard]

-Hillary Clinton is no less authentic than other politicians, Brendan Nyhan argues. She's just less skilled at hiding the artifice. [NYT]

-Authenticity is overrated, says Marc Ambinder. [538]

-Nate Silver and crew discuss how much damage the email controversy has done to Clinton's candidacy. [538]

-David Wheeler sees a "rising revolt" among consumers who question why they are answering surveys for free. [The Week]

-Scott Keeter remembers Andrew Kohut. [AAPOR]

-The Department of Transportation is building a publicly accessible database of every address in the country. [FedScoop]

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