Tomorrow's midterms could be among the most consequential in years, with the state of Congress potentially changing from "log-jammed" to "stuck." Reporters are poised to not have to rewrite the word "poised" for at least a little while. And Republicans are poised to retake control of the Senate, a development that could be bad news for ACORN. This is HUFFPOST HILL for Monday, November 3rd, 2014:
SENATE IN GOP CROSSHAIRS - Mark Blumenthal and Ariel Edwards-Levy: "With less than 24 hours remaining before polls open nationwide, a final round of polls largely confirms previous findings in the much-watched battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Republican candidates are leading by at least nominal margins in enough states to allow their party to capture majority control, although the HuffPost Pollster Senate forecast has grown more confident about the outcome in the campaign's final hours.As of this writing, the HuffPost Pollster forecast finds a 77 percent chance that Republicans will win a Senate majority, up more than eight points since Friday morning. The shift is largely the result of greater confidence that leads will hold up, as the undecided vote continues to decline and the time for late shifts runs out. Over the past week, confidence that the leaders will win has increased. Since more Republican candidates have been narrowly ahead in the closest states, this shift has increased the model's overall confidence in a Republican majority." [HuffPost]
SWEET GOV RACE TOSSUPS - Mark Blumenthal, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson: "While the battle for the U.S. Senate has captured attention nationwide, some of this year's closest contests are among the 36 governor's races, nearly a third of which are headed to virtual photo finishes, according to recent polls. As of this writing, the HuffPost Pollster tracking models show the top candidates separated by less than three-tenths of a percentage point in four states -- Connecticut, Florida, Illinois and Maine. Four more states -- Alaska, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin -- are near tossups with the top two candidates separated by less than 2 percentage points. In three more contests -- Georgia, Kansas and Massachusetts -- the margins are slightly greater but remain close enough to allow for election night surprises." [HuffPost]
GOP LIKELY TO GAIN HOUSE SEATS - Mark Blumenthal, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson: "In 2014, the high-stakes battle for control of the U.S. Senate, rather than individual House races, has gotten most of the attention from pollsters and the news media. However, the most recent data from national and district-level surveys suggests that while they're polling significantly behind the level of the 2010 GOP wave, Republicans are poised to expand their U.S. House majority on Tuesday, gaining at least a half dozen seats and perhaps as many as 10 to 15...HuffPost Pollster's tracking model for the generic House vote, which combines all of the public polls, has given Republicans an advantage of roughly 2 percentage points on the national generic vote question since early August. Democrats may see that margin as relatively good news, since national polls in 2010 had Republicans leading by much wider margins. Pollster's final 2010 average gave the GOP an 8-point advantage." [HuffPost]
HuffPost's election live blog is live...blog.
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT MONITORING ELECTION IN 18 STATES - The DOJ will be on the lookout for scary New Black Panthers. Chris Geidner: "One of the key issues liberals flag as a highlight of Attorney General Eric Holder’s tenure is his work on voting issues — a legacy he aims to continue on Tuesday when the Justice Department stations election monitors in 18 states across the country. Holder, in a statement Monday, said of the effort, 'Over the last few months, leaders from the Voting Section of the Civil Rights Division have received information from a wide variety of citizens and groups. Based upon our independent and non-partisan consideration and expertise, we have dispatched federal monitors to polling places around the country — just as we do during every election season.'" [BuzzFeed]
HuffPost Haircuts: Sabrina Siddiqui, Christina Wilkie, Jen Bendery.
HUFFPOST HILL ENDORSES DC MARIJUANA BALLOT INITIATIVE - We're thrilled that for the first time we won't have to vote for weed as a write-in. Yes on 71!
DAILY DELANEY DOWNER - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would like you to know that you can't get the Ebola virus from a sneeze. Some people have seized on info that had been posted to the agency's website as evidence that it's possible for Ebola to be sneezed from one person to another. Since last week, the agency has been editing text on its website to clarify that the disease is not "airborne" and that coughs and sneezes don't transmit the disease. Over the weekend, the agency again modified an Ebola infographic by removing an image of a germ-covered doorknob and editing text about droplets of bodily fluids. Such fluids are Ebola's vehicle of choice, but because droplets cannot remain suspended in the air, it would be incorrect to describe Ebola as an airborne disease. [HuffPost]
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MOST AMERICANS WANT IMMIGRATION REFORM: POLL - One more way for the 114th Congress to disappoint us all. Elise Foley: "A strong majority of Americans want Congress to address immigration next year, and most think the topic has received too little attention from candidates in the midterm elections, according to a HuffPost/YouGov poll released Monday. The poll found that 44 percent of likely voters said it's very important that Congress pass legislation in the next year dealing with immigration, and another 37 percent called it somewhat important. Only 19 percent said it was either not very important or not at all important." [HuffPost]
Mitt Romney says a Republican Senate would send immigration reform to the president's desk, but honeslty it's kind of hard to imagine the U.S. Senate passing immigration reform.
The House will soon less resemble a meeting of the Loudon County Polka Society: "[A]t least five new women of color poised to win their congressional races. The Democrats have already elected Alma Adams of North Carolina to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Mel Watt (D). Adams will be the 100th woman in Congress when she is sworn in on Wednesday. The party also expects to add Brenda Lawrence of Michigan, Norma Torres of California and Bonnie Watson Coleman of New Jersey to its ranks in the House. On the Republican side, Mia Love from Utah is likely to become the first black woman ever to join the GOP caucus in the House. Republicans are also hoping to elect Marilinda Garcia of New Hampshire, who is running in a tight race against Rep. Annie Kuster (D)." [HuffPost's Laura Bassett]
Environmentalists hope to deny Kevin McCarthy his main access to Kate Upton: "Climate activists in Michigan are hoping to pull off an upset in the House race that pits incumbent Republican Fred Upton against Democrat Paul Clements. Upton, who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee, was considered a lock-in for re-election. But a recent poll conducted for the Clements campaign found him gaining steam against Upton, with the incumbent polling at 47 percent and Clements at 43 percent. Ten percent of poll respondents said they were still undecided. Clements, a professor of political science at Western Michigan University, was considered a long-shot against the 11-term congressman Upton. Democratic polling found him 20 points behind Upton just two months earlier." [HuffPost's Kate Sheppard]
WHITE HOUSE SYRIA POLICY IN THE TOILET - Akbar Shahid Ahmed: "Moderate U.S.-backed Syrian rebels seemed weaker than ever on Monday after a weekend of major defeats in the northwestern region of the country, raising questions about the U.S.-led coalition's plan to arm and train the groups to fight the Islamic State -- and the international community's commitment to keeping the moderates relevant The rebel groups have received U.S. assistance through the CIA since last year. In September, Congress approved a plan to offer them expanded training and equipment...The White House declined to comment on how these latest developments might alter its approach to the moderate rebels. A Department of Defense official told the Washington Post that while the Pentagon was monitoring the situation closely, it could not confirm reports from the ground. But in a major address last week, Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken made clear that the Obama administration's plan for the rebels was not likely to change, even as they became weaker on the ground." [HufPost]
COURT HANDS ATHEISTS A VICTORY - However, individuals close to the atheists say the victory has been tempered by the fact that life is utterly pointless. Shadee Ashtari: "A federal district court in Oregon has ruled in favor of an atheist inmate who filed suit against the Federal Bureau of Prisons in April for rejecting his requests to form a humanist study group on grounds that humanism was not listed as a religious affiliation under existing prison classifications. In a decision issued Thursday, Senior District Judge Ancer Haggerty ruled that prison officials violated inmate Jason Holden's constitutional rights under the First and Fifth Amendments, and moved to recognize secular humanism as a religion for 'Establishment Clause purposes.' The case, co-filed by the American Humanist Association, marks a victory for secular groups seeking access to the same legal rights afforded to Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jews and Muslims -- all of whom are permitted to organize under the current federal prison system." [HuffPost]
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR - Here's a dog who loves playing dead.
COMFORT FOOD
- Ten hours of walking through New York as a Jewish guy.
- The movie "Inception," as described by adirector's mom.
- "STEVE JOBS MEMORIAL DISMANTLED FOR FEAR THAT IT WOULD TURN RUSSIA GAY."
- A clever museum visitor made paintings look like the subjects were taking selfies.
- Dude dresses up a mannequin and freaks out pedestrians.
TWITTERAMA
@jbendery: Any bros out there throwing a bro election night watch party? If so, please let me come. I'll even bring beer and wear a baseball cap.
@nickconfessore: Oh hai there, cursed season of endless night.
@palafo: It’s going to be a particle election not a wave.
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