Cancer was a blessing for the legacy of Hugo Chávez. Cancer allowed the former Venezuelan president to die a martyr, derailing him from a fate á la Fidel Castro -- that of living long enough to become a cruel dictator. Furthermore, Chávez will not have to deal with the rising consequences of his socialist experiment; two-digit inflation, a monstrous government bureaucracy, a steep decline in oil reserves and the soaring crime rate in Venezuela which is now the second most violent country in the region after Honduras. Hugo Chávez will rest in peace; Venezuelans will not.
His death comes as a nightmare for the renewed socialist and populist projects of Nicaragua, Bolivia and Ecuador. Cuba, the Latin American socialist model, will be the most affected. Chávez mimicked the 1960s and 1970s Soviet umbrella by supplying the island with oil and subsidies amounting to billions of dollars. The death of Chávez now threatens to signal the death of 20th century Latin American socialism. Nicholas Maduro will win the Venezuelan presidency and instead of inheriting the political brilliance of his predecessor, he will only get a country held together by threads.
The Americans must be celebrating. However, the news of his death should be received with caution. Venezuela under Chávez was the fourth supplier of oil to the United States, always steady and reliable. Moreover, Chávez was a familiar foe, not nearly as dangerous or unpredictable as Fidel in his prime years. While Castro threatened the U.S. with Soviet nuclear warheads, Chávez limited himself to mockery and rhetoric. He charmed the world by exploiting an anti-American sentiment and his sharp humor never ceased to amaze; using the UN General Assembly podium, he called President George W. Bush "the devil." Chávez did flirt with U.S. enemies and competitors ranging from Iran's Ahmadinejad to China's Hu Jintao. However, these meetings were not threats to American regional security interests as much as they were publicity stunts.
The death of Hugo Chávez arrives in Latin America as a destabilizer. His unique brand of radicalism served as an ideological force that ultimately balanced the power and influence exerted by the United States in a region which historically had to endure CIA-backed coup d'états and rampant economic exploitation. Hugo Chávez constituted an ideological mole digging holes in what America has traditionally seen as its backyard. Without Chávez, Latin American populist socialism loses its champion and momentum. The aging Castro brothers no longer have the leadership, novelty or vigor needed to energize Latin Americans against Washington. Nicholas Maduro, Evo Morales, Rafael Correa and Daniel Ortega simply don't have the spark or the resources to play geopolitics.
Finally, for his country, the debt left by Chávez could trigger social and political instability. Chávez, el caudillo, managed to weaken a fairly stable democracy. The frameworks of Venezuela's political parties and institutions evaporated under his rule. Chávez, displaying brilliant communication skills with the masses, was ultimately a puppet master holding the country by strings. Now that he is gone, the strings have loosen and some have broken. He built Venezuela around him, making himself indispensable. His charm, wit and energy propelled and refreshed an ideology that seemed outdated. Ultimately, he was one of the few who knew how to oppose Washington without bringing the world to the brink of war. Whether we are celebrating or crying, Comandante Chávez will be missed.