The news media's narrative of the 2010 election has been written for months: Democrats fighting for their lives against a Republican tide that will be anywhere from pretty big to cataclysmic.
But in one Congressional race in Chicago's north suburbs, the story is flipped on its head.
A new poll in Illinois' 10th District confirms that Democrat Dan Seals has a sizable lead over his Republican opponent, Robert Dold. The seat has been held for ten years by Republican Mark Kirk, who is vacating it to run for U.S. Senate.
The Hill's poll, released Tuesday, gives Seals a 12-point lead in the race. It lines up closely with a Democratic internal poll from early September, in which Seals led by 13.
For years, Democrats have drooled over the prospect of flipping IL-10, a district which has a Cook PVI rating of D+6, indicating a significant Democratic lean. Barack Obama won the affluent suburban district by more than 20 points in the 2008 presidential election, and it went for Kerry and Gore in the two previous cycles.
But Kirk was resilient enough to stave off Democratic challengers. In the 2006 and 2008 elections, it was Dan Seals who challenged the incumbent, coming within five points in the last race. Kirk's moderate bonafides (which he touted right up until the Republican Senate primary) helped him hang on to his seat.
With Kirk's departure, the task of keeping the seat has fallen to Dold. A longtime politico, Dold was born in the district, and claims to be a "lifelong resident," though he spent almost all of his adult life in Washington, D.C. and in the city of Chicago.
He has taken flak for this claim, and for deliberately hiding his conservative views to win a moderate district. Also, his opponent is a considerably more experienced campaigner; that may be helping to bolster Seals' lead.
Whatever the reason, with every new poll, this district looks more and more like it will be bucking the national trend. And it's an encouraging result for other Democratic candidates as well; if they can out-perform in some moderate suburban areas like this one, candidates like Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn might also have a chance in November.