At a time when the world’s attention has been caught by the unfolding drama of this week’s volcanic eruptions in Bali, there is a sidebar to the story which seems to have escaped international attention.
Volcanologists attached to the PVMBG volcano center for geological disaster mitigation in Rendang, Bali have been working around the clock for months now monitoring the situation around Mt Agung. Yet recently they have come under fire from the provincial government and also the tourism sector. Whilst in reality the volcanologists have been issuing alert levels according to well-considered parameters which have been internationally acknowledged as sound by geologists such as the USGS, the local and provincial governments have protested that their alerts and terminology has been damaging to the lucrative tourist trade on the island.
When the highest level of alert was called on the 22nd of September there was panic – the local disaster mitigation body BPBD was ill-prepared and so indeed were the local and provincial governments. Chaos followed, villagers panicked, the roads were jammed, and many spent the night in their cars. After a week or two the grumblings from the tourism sector started up. They were upset that they were going to lose money as cancellations due to the lack of flight insurance started to take affect. In fact most of the island’s tourism industry is relatively safe outside of the area of Karangasem. But perhaps more of a sticking point is the fact that Bali is to play host to IMF conference in October 2018, and preparations have been threatened by the current status.
Meanwhile the effort to somehow manipulate the PVMBG’s recommendations (once made it is up to the government how to respond) continued, thus attempting to minimize the impact. The mountain has been highly active for two months with numerous different types of tremors, at one point reaching more than a thousand a day. Yet still the government grumbled about how important the commitment to the IMF conference was, especially the infrastructure developments that were planned. Perhaps more telling was the fact the main sand quarries for said developments are on the flanks of Mt Agung, in fact deep within the exclusion zones recommended by the PVMBG.
PVMBG stood its ground (it is a multi-disciplined assessment after all). Not only the did Governor of Bali, Mangku Pastika, start questioning their judgement, but so did the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs, Luhut Panjaitan. An ex-special forces commander, Luhut happens also to be in charge of the preparations for the IMF conference. To put this into fair perspective, Luhut has relied extensively on the advice of Surono, an ex-head of the PVMBG who until recently was special staff to the minister of energy and mineral resources. That in itself would seem legitimate.
Retired from his position as head of PVMBG, Surono visited the observation post when the alert level was raised to its highest, 4 or “Awas”; along with the Minister for Energy and Mineral Resources as special advisor. At the time it would appear that he concurred with the level 4 alert. However looking at Surono’s social media postings weeks later a curious thing emerged. He started stating that the Awas call had been made too early, that the volcano should have erupted. The Governor of Bali chimed in, stating that the volcano really should have erupted on the 23rd of September, the day after the alert level had been raised. When the volcanologists at the Rendang post were asked if they had triggered a panic, they were non-plussed: “We called the alert level according to all the parameters and with the people’s safety in mind. We never said it was going to erupt straight away nor did we insist on immediate evacuation. That’s not our call. Our call is to give a clear scientific reading on the probabilities and to recommend. What the local government sees fit to do is their call”.
After things appeared to quieten down, the alert level was brought down to 3 (Siaga). Despite this the PVMBG scientists insisted that it wouldn’t rule out an eruption. Then another freelance scientist, Lesto, declared he was setting up an independent seismological sensor network in Bali. Suffice it to say things were getting confusing.
Then on the 9th of November a Richter scale 5 quake hit the northeastern flanks of Agung, on the same fault line as in 1963. In addition to the 19.5 million cubic meters of magma that had already moved into the depths of the mountain, another 19.5 million cubic meters moved in. The tremors and quakes signifying the magma punching its way through the plug continued, moving up from 40 km down to just 5 km from the crater. Volcanologist Devy Kamal Syahbana said they have been monitoring various parameters; it was not such a surprise given the circumstances.
After weeks of steam clouds rising from rain falling on the heated crater, a fortnight ago Mt Agung had its first ‘phreatic’ (later proven to be phreato-magmatic) eruption which is caused by water deep inside coming into contact with magma within the mountain. Absurdly the tourism sector along with elements of the provincial government protested the word “eruption”, saying that it gave the impression Bali wasn’t safe. Gede Suantika of the PVMBG was called in, in the hopes of coming up with another ‘tourism friendly’ term. But Gede Suantika calmly stood his ground. Then the heat turned on journalists, trying to get them to modify their words. All of which caused no end of rancor within the ranks of local journalists, who had even started a #istandwithpvmbg campaign earlier on, t-shirt and all.
What started as phreato-magmatic eruptions went into serious magmatic phase. The eruptions have sent clouds of volcanic material 3,500 meters up into the sky, disrupting all flights into Bali. The volcano alert level was put up to 4 again several days ago, and the VONA flight alerts to Red (for the moment it’s back down to Orange, but it is fluctuative). Villagers are once again being evacuated. So far it has been what’s called effusive eruptions, but Mt Agung is known for its explosive nature. It is one of 58 volcanoes world wide to hit Volcanic Explosivity Index 5, and one of only 7 to do so consecutively over the centuries. The mountain is complex – for the last two days it seems have calmed down. The volcanogists in Rendang are saying it is still too early to tell.
What is difficult to fathom is why the PVMBG’s recommendations have been the object of so much second-guessing and half-baked opinions. They are the only recognized authority on volcanoes in Indonesia; they approach their work with scientific discipline and are well respected internationally. Their main concern is scientific accuracy and disaster mitigation recommendation. All are welcome to the Rendang post. They allow journalists to camp out and ask questions and are patient in answering. Is all this jockeying around on the sidelines, whether for money or fame, really in the interests of the people in Bali?
More to the point, why did this sort of denial even happen? It is clear that the volcano is probably be on its way to a major eruption. It would be much more responsible (and respectable) to embrace the reality. Surely tourism would be better served by the industry acknowledging the issues and joining forces to mitigate disaster. There is plenty to do, educating people, providing alternative sources of income, and making sure that the evacuation camps are live-able, for example. It doesn’t have to be a disaster: it can simply be a natural phenomena that we can watch from a safe distance. Trite as it seems, health and safety come first, money second.