A statewide survey of registered Republicans in California was released Sunday. It showed Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz by 37 percent-to-30 percent, with John Kasich at 12 percent. But among likely Republican voters, the numbers were Trump 36 percent, Cruz 35 percent, and Kasich 14 percent.
What does this Los Angeles Times survey tell us?
It's true that the Times poll, done in cooperation with the University of Southern California, has received mixed reviews in the past. But these numbers are more than plausible. This survey was conducted over eight days ending March 23. Consider another survey, conducted by the Public Policy Research Institute, that ended just before the Times/USC survey started. That survey showed Trump 38 percent, Cruz 19 percent, and Kasich 12percent but also had included Marco Rubio at 12 percent, and others had polled 10 percent.
We can infer that as the race has narrowed, and Trump has continued his self-destructive personal outbursts, his support, at least for now in California, has peaked. My own recent data, not statewide, suggests that if the California primary were today, Trump indeed wins; but with a somewhat limited turnout, his lead over Cruz is only a couple of points, and Kasich not far behind. If the turnout were still lower, that is, typical of recent presidential primaries (and that's unlikely), Cruz and Trump are tied, with Kasich very close.
My own data found that Trump's personal attack on Heidi Cruz hurt him, at least for the short-term. We can't predict what Trump will do, but consequences are cumulative. If he continues in self-destructive mode, he could reach a breaking point in California.
Here's what we know about the Republican presidential primary in California.
- 1. Republicans in California follow the national news. If Trump continues to act out, the impact could be felt weeks before election day, because many Republicans vote by mail, and they will be targeted by congressional district, as explained below.
originally appeared:
http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/28/will-california-finally-be-in-play/