The UN commission of inquiry investigating the tragic Gaza flotilla events of May 2010 finally published its findings. Contrary to the tradition of UN reports concerning Israel, this report presented a picture much more in tune with Israel's arguments than that of its adversaries, in this case Turkey and the international left-wing "bash Israel at all costs" coalition.
The report justifies the legality of the Israeli blockade on Gaza, negates the propaganda that it caused a humanitarian crisis there and clearly tracks the roots of the problem to Hamas criminal missile attacks on Israeli civilians. The report clearly defines the IHH Turkish organization that was behind the flotilla for what it is: a dangerous, provocative and aggressive movement. In this context, the report criticizes the Turkish government for failing to prevent the provocation; in fact, the clear implication is that the Erdogan government encouraged the provocation.
These are the points which can and will be used by advocates of Israel in a campaign designed to prove Israel's case. However, the Israeli government cannot claim complete diplomatic and PR victory. Far from it, as the report condemns the excessive use of force by the Israeli commandos, specifically criticizing the killings of nine people and calling upon Israel to express regret over the tragic results of the unavoidable and justified military action, as well as to pay compensations to the families of the Turkish casualties.
Weighing it all on the scale, the report seems to satisfy the Israelis and frustrate the Turks -- in fact it infuriates them. Their immediate, though not spontaneous, reaction was to order the demotion of the level of diplomatic relations, as well as to freeze the military relations between the two once allies. Jupiter is clearly angry, but we recall that when Jupiter is angry, Jupiter is wrong. A reasonable reaction of the two countries to such a report is to accept it as a whole, with the sting and the honey attached to it, and express mutual apologies. Israel, in that case, should pay the compensations and strongly regret the tragic outcome of its military activity. Turkey should acknowledge that the Gaza blockade is perfectly legal and necessary, and take serious and credible steps against the terrorist IHH.
As the Sabbath is descending in Israel, the Netanyahu government has not yet issued its official reaction, but Israeli public opinion did. Within hours, a key website was flooded with over 1,000 talkbacks, the equivalent of 40,000 in the US.
The tone and message is very clear -- Israel should not apologize unilaterally to Turkey, and Netanyahu gets the credit for refusing to do so. Clearly, a rare moment of gratification for the otherwise besieged Israeli PM. Already ahead of the report, Netanyahu and his FM Lieberman worked hard, and with astonishing results on a diplomatic campaign among Turkey's Balkan neighbors.
The Greek performance during the abortive second provocative flotilla just a few weeks ago is one indication among others attesting to the success of the Israeli effort. Yet the picture for Israel is not just rosy, as the strategic alliance with Turkey is over, perhaps indefinitely, and with it the inevitable loss of military hardware contracts, which for almost two decades were very lucrative for the Israeli military industries.
Beyond the military-strategic aspect, there is another element which should concern the Israelis, and this is the fact that the rupture with Turkey may prove that even relatively moderate Muslim states can not conduct sustained friendly relations with the Jewish state. This is exactly the point where we can start the Turkish balance sheet of this fiasco. The Erdogan government will surely score many points in Turkey, particularly from its Islamic base, perhaps also from some ultra-nationalist secular elements, but they are going to lose badly in another important constituency. I refer to countries in Western Europe in particular, which have had their reservations about the inclusion of Turkey in the EU. The specter of a militant Islamic government relating to Israel much the same as the vast majority of the Muslim world, is bound to intensify the already existing suspicions regarding Erdogan and his brand of "moderate" Islam.
Surely, the powerful pro-Israel community in the US, will have to revise its attitude towards Turkey; something which will put some pressure also on the Obama administration. It does not require too much vision to anticipate campaigns exposing some of Turkey's skeletons, such as the Armenian and Kurdish questions, as well as the illegal Turkish republic of northern Cyprus. Hopefully, such campaigns can still be avoided as they should, but when tempers are high, who can tell...
It is not clear, also, whether the suspension of the military relations with Israel is a net loss only to the Israelis, or could become also a major problem for the Turkish military. Paradoxically though, Bashar Assad -- of all people -- should be rather more concerned now than before as to Erdogan policy with regard to Syria. As the former proved his anti-Israel credentials, he may feel more vindicated than before to make good also on his threats against the continuing slaughter of Sunni Muslims in Syria.
Be that as it may, the collapse of the Turkish-Israeli relations is a sad development and one is left to hope that somehow the last word has not been said yet.