The politics of the conflict between Hamas and the State of Israel are well documented, and I'm sure you have already formed an opinion about who is at fault and what must be done. This article is not about any of that. It's not about right or wrong, good or bad, politics or religion... it's about a remarkable technology that is serving both a strategic and tactical purpose in an untenable, unsustainable situation.
In Arthur C. Clarke's famous essay, "Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination," he offers a "law" of prediction that posits, "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." If our imaginations don't fail us, we can predict a defense system "so advanced" that enemy fire cannot penetrate it. Think of common arrows vs. suits of armor, or bombs vs. concrete-reinforced underground bunkers. That is the strategic idea behind Israel's Iron Dome technology -- protect Israel's citizens and property by destroying enemy missiles in the air. Can Iron Dome technology really do that?
A Brief History
The Iron Dome was developed in the mid-2000s, after nearly 4,000 rockets landed in North Israel during the country's second war with Lebanon in 2006. More than 4,000 additional rockets fired from Gaza landed in southern Israel between 2000 and 2007. After first coming up with the idea of an air defense system in February 2007, the first version was successfully tested in March 2009. In July 2010, the United States provided $205 million to help expand the effectiveness of the Iron Dome.
How it Works
The Iron Dome is made up of "batteries," which are trucks featuring radar and three launchers. By the end of 2012, Israel had five batteries. In September 2013, the country added a sixth. There are currently eight batteries protecting the country, but weapons scientist Richard Lloyd recently pointed to this number as one of the system's major flaws -- there just aren't enough batteries to protect all of Israel.
The Iron Dome's Shortcomings
But then, in November 2012, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tweeted that it had stopped 302 of the 846 rockets fired from Gaza; this figure far lower than 50 percent, but still effective in keeping out hundreds of missiles. This month, however, the IDF said it had intercepted just 27 percent of the 180 rockets fired at Israel from July 7-9.
Then again, those numbers may not necessarily be accurate. Bloomberg reports that Lloyd and "a handful of other outside experts, including Theodore Postol of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have been challenging the IDF's assertions on Iron Dome's success rate since at least 2012." Even if the Iron Dome "intercepts" the missile, Lloyd says it may not manage to detonate its warhead in mid-air, meaning it'll still cause major damage once it lands.
Other Forms of Missile Defense
It's this warning system and network of shelters that are saving most Israelis' lives, according to Theodore Postol, a professor of science technology and national security policy at MIT. Postol estimates the Iron Dome's success rate is less than 5 percent -- far lower than just about every other estimate.
The Iron Dome's true success rate probably lies somewhere between Postol's 5 percent estimate and the IDF's 90 percent figure -- but at the time of this writing, statistics are fluid.
Technology, Strategy and Tactics
One day, a more advanced version of Iron Dome technology may be capable of destroying every single incoming missile. While that day cannot come soon enough, it is sufficiently far enough in the future for us to need a quick, peaceful resolution. For everyone's sake, I hope that peace finds a way.