It aint Over til its Over!

All that is missing is a ticker-tape parade and a marching band playing "Happy Days are Here Again." Were it not for the North Carolina humidity reminding me that it's August, I'd be convinced that the election is over and Hillary Clinton was president-elect.

But just below the cacophony lingers the spirit of Yogi Berra saying, "It ain't over 'til it's over."

There's obviously reason for optimism. According to Real Clear Politics last week, Clinton was dominating the race by almost every possible metric.

But alas, it's still August.

It's no secret that the Electoral College has not been kind to Republican candidates this century. States have been slowly ebbing away that Republicans once took for granted. The well-documented demographic shift threatens to render the GOP in its present state to a regional party as it relates to presidential campaigns.

But that alone does not account for Clinton's August lead. She has clearly benefited from a post convention bounce, but why? There are essentially two reasons.

First, there was the juxtaposition of the two conventions. Shouts of "lock her up" at the Republican convention easily outdistanced any vision for the next four years that would turn around the nation's right track/wrong track polling that has been mired in a negative direction for far too long. The Republican stalwarts who opted to skip the convention were just as noticeable, if not more so, than the actual attendees.

In contrast, the Democrats appeared to be a bastion of unity fortified by hope. Not even the "Bernie or Bust" contingency could quell the esprit de corps that permeated the convention hall. Moreover, the Democratic stalwarts were present, all singing the praises of Clinton.

But this only accounts for a portion of the August bounce. The other share belongs to Trump.

In a week that could have eliminated most if not all of Clinton's post-convention bounce, Trump behaved as if he were at an all-you-can-eat smorgasbord, where the only thing on the menu was one's own foot.

Instead of discussing what would otherwise be newsworthy topics such as anemic economic growth, Clinton's dance with dishonesty in that FBI Director James Comey agreed with her version of the email server kerfuffle, or the Obama administration returning $400 million plus interest to Iran, which to many appears to be a ransom payment, the week belonged to Trump's self-inflicted blunders.

Without question, Trump's biggest faux pas was his impulsive decision to enter into a petty squabble with a Gold Star family. Any comments directed toward Khizr and Ghazala Khan, whose son, Humayun Khan, an American Muslim, was killed by a suicide bomber in Iraq in 2004, that go beyond showing compassion for their loss and acknowledging his valor are dangerous ground.

And then there was last week, with Trump's remarks that some interpreted as joking about violence against Clinton or suggesting it, and his crazy claim that President Obama and Clinton founded ISIS.

It goes beyond whether Trump has the temperament to be president. Does he possess human decency?
The aforementioned issues could have potentially reminded voters of the narrative that led to Clinton's high negative rating. The narrative has of late been on a steady downward trajectory, but it has been engulfed by a tsunami of Trump gaffes. Now the question becomes: Is Clinton's lead sustainable?

If Clinton were victorious in November, I suspect she would prove to be more effective as president than she is on the campaign trail. But it's difficult to be hired if one flubs the interview.

Clinton's Achilles Heel as a campaigner appears to be her inability to get out of her own way. In what would be an ironic twist, just as Trump is partially responsible for her current lead, she could return the favor. All it would take is something on par with being "dead broke" to resuscitate the narrative that she's untrustworthy.

August should be at best a time of guarded optimism. It is certainly not a moment for exuberance, which can lead to overconfidence. And the first cousin to overconfidence is hubris.

No one has won the presidency in August. For that reason it's important to remember that Yogi Berra lives.

The Rev. Byron Williams, is a writer and host of the "The Public Morality".